Anatomy of the Global Meltdown

          The current global recession comes on the heels of an extended economic growth period. At least 85 percent of this economic expansion was owed to the knowledge-based sectors where massive innovation occurred in the first decade of the 21st century. International financial markets saw a rapid growth in capitalisation that, on one hand, benefited the emerging economies and, on the other, provided overblown credit to the American economy from China as well as other developing countries with hobbled domestic consumption. Global financial markets tied the US economic cycle to that in the rest of the world economy. Once the American sub-prime market began to plunge, shock waves permeated other countries leading to the loss of investor confidence and an ensuing massive contraction of stock value. All that produced an especially strong impact on the emerging economies. Most of these proved to be much less resilient than expected by some economists who had maintained that a solid basis for sustained growth had already been in place at least in the most advanced of the developing countries. As long as none of the international financial institutions was capable of delivering an adequate response to the crisis, economic nationalism became widespread. As a result, any emerging post-crisis economic order will be based on enhanced intervention by state authorities and transformed property rights in the leading economies.

Missile Defence in Global Politics

          Missile defence deployments have been raising controversy in US-Russian relations since the late 1960s. While in the early 1970s it was Washington who promoted a ban on missile defence, which materialised in the US-Soviet ABM Treaty of 1972, one decade later the Soviet Union became strongly concerned about Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative. Since that time, Moscow has been arguing against unilateral measures to protect the United States from missile attack casting them as potentially destabilising for the US-Russian strategic arms balance. Having advanced in theatre missile defence technologies over the 1990s, Washington embarked on developing a strategic missile defence system in the late 1990s. The US terminated the ABM Treaty with Russia in 2001 and has since declined offers of cooperation with Russia in defending both countries against rogue states or accidental missile launches. These moves reinforced Moscow's anxieties about a potential devaluation of Russia's strategic deterrence. To make matters worse, the US deployed a number of high precision weapon systems that could be used in a first disarming strike against Russia's nuclear capabilities, especially if Moscow were to agree to deep nuclear cuts. Three options are available to Russia and the US in overcoming the current missile defence stalemate. First, Moscow could unilaterally scrap the existing arms control agreements and undertake demonstrative measures to show its readiness to counter US missile defences. However, such policy could backfire by leading to a US forces build-up in Europe that will pose a strategic threat to Russia. Second, Moscow and Washington could agree on linking arms control agreements with limits on missile defence systems, especially those to be deployed in Europe. Both sides appear to be moving in that direction, although many obstacles still remain. Finally, and most desirably, the US and Russia could set on deploying joint missile defences akin to those developed together by Washington and Tokyo.

Military Force in America

          President Obama has repeatedly pledged to overhaul US national security policy. The contours of any reform policy will depend on the goals of the US grand strategy, ways of military transformation as well as the evolution of external security environment. The Obama administration has so far shown only limited willingness to compromise the US quest for global primacy, if not dominance, which is rooted deeply in the American worldview and values. The only strategy change that Obama has sought to implement was an attempt to improve allied relationships that suffered serious damage during the Bush years. On the military front, Obama has not so far visibly deflected from the Bush approach. Washington will not be pulling forces out of Iraq or Afghanistan any time soon. In the case of Afghanistan, escalation of tensions on the ground is likely to continue while the political stakes involved have become particularly high. Surprisingly, massive increases in defence spending over the past eight years have not allowed Washington to achieve anything that could be described as a victory in either Iraq or Afghanistan. Financial difficulties have led Obama to explore opportunities for more efficient spending on defence and operations. However, these efforts along with the earlier unprecedented increases in spending on homeland defence, national security and military capability procurement have failed to address the fundamental security challenges encountered by the United States in this decade.

Border Security in the European Union

          Although the European Union does not have a full-fledged common border security policy, a number of existing regulations, such as the Schengen agreements, and institutions, such as the FRONTEX or EUROPOL agencies, provide for a tight coordination of border regimes and immigration norms among the member states. EU bodies have set strict border protection standards that have to be implemented by all candidate countries if they are to eventually accede to the EU. Brussels has also accumulated and processed biometric data on at least 70 million individual Schengen visa applicants.
Notwithstanding tight border controls, the European Union has generally succeeded in striking the right balance between security and trans-border cooperation. The EU-sponsored 'Euroregions' programme has improved the image of the EU in its eastern and southern neighbourhoods. However, an easier visa regime introduced by the EU for these regions may hinder their interaction with other non-member countries to the East and South.
Visa barriers separating the EU from Russia cannot be fully explained by income disparities, illegal immigration, trafficking or other trans-border crime threats. The most likely reason for the EU to be reluctant about easing up visa rules with Russia is the historically-rooted concern of some EU frontier nations about a potentially destructive influx of Russian citizens. To address this constraint, Moscow and Brussels could foster cooperation between their police and border protection services. This may allow for a simplification of visa procedures and help Russia to adopt some of the useful EU experience in the field of border management.

Game Theory in International Studies

PERSONA GRATA

Faces and Personalities

“The crisis gives us a rare chance to stand up to common challenges together...”

Chaos Theory Applicability to World Politics. Adapting the Key Concepts

The Gender Factor in World Politics

The Future of Financial Crisis

The Limits of East Europe's Energy Dependence

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND WORLD POLITICS

Business and Politics in Russia: Peculiar Interrelationships

CONTINUING THE DISCUSSION

The Taliban Are Not the Only Ones to Come Back

DISCUSSION

Two Russians – Three Opinions

International Research: Fundamental and Applied

SCRIPTA MANENT

Reviews

International Development and Liberal Transformation
Гжегож В. Колодко «Мир в движении». М.: Магистр, 2009. 575 с.

The Cost of Non-Recognition
Deon Geldenhuys. Contested States in World Politics. London: Palgrave Macmillan, 2009. 295 p.

Russia in a Rethought World
Россия в современной системе обеспечения глобальной стабильности: политика и восприятие / Отв. ред. А. А. Кокошин. М.: Издательство ЛКИ, 2008. 208 с. Россия в формировании международной системы профилактики распространения оружия массового поражения / Отв. ред. А. А. Кокошин, А. Д. Богатуров. М.: КомКнига, 2008. 208 с.

Democracy and the Left Turn in Brazil
Окунева Л.С. Бразилия: особенности демократического проекта. Страницы новейшей политической истории латиноамериканского гиганта (1960-е гг.-2006 г.). М.: МГИМО-Университет, 2008. 823 с.

China in Central Asia
Marlene Laruelle, Sebastien Peyrouse. China as a Neighbor: Central Asian Perspectives and Strategies. Central Asia – Caucasus Institute. Silk Road Studies Program. 2009.

Transnational Trends in the World-System: Implications and Paradoxes
William I. Robinson. Latin America and Global Capitalism: A Critical Globalization Perspective. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 2008. 412 p.

In brevi

A POTENTIA AD ACTUM

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