intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2020.18.4.63.5intertrends-225Research ArticleРЕАЛЬНОСТЬ И ТЕОРИЯREALITY AND THEORYСетевая динамика «диффузии технологий» в системе международных трансферов вооруженийNetwork Dynamics of Technology Diffusion in International Arms TransfersМальцевА. М.MaltsevA. M.

Мальцев Артём Михайлович - аспирант 

Москва

Mr Artem Maltsev - Doctoral Candidate

Moscow, 101000

amalcev@hse.ruНаучно-исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian Federation2020301220201843661Copyright © Мальцев А.М., 20202020Мальцев А.М.Maltsev A.M.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/225

Представленное исследование рассматривает роль технологических факторов в мировой торговле оружием. В первой части статьи с опорой на краткий обзор ключевых научных работ по данной проблематике обосновывается системный характер межгосударственных трансферов вооружений, её тесная взаимосвязь с более общей политической структурой международных отношений. Поднимая вопрос относительно детерминантов динамики системы межгосударственных трансферов вооружения, обсуждается теоретический подход «диффузии технологий», предложенный Китом Краузе в начале 1990-х годов. Принимая во внимание отечественные и зарубежные исследования современных тенденций международного сотрудничества в области военно-промышленного комплекса, автор приходит к заключению, что хотя технический прогресс оказывает существенное влияние на степень иерархии в отношениях между поставщиками и покупателями вооружений, многие конкретные аспекты остаются не ясны. Приводят ли трансферы военных технологий между странами к их пролиферации в международной системе и таким образом сглаживанию иерархии международной торговли вооружениями? Или отношения между странами в данной сфере носят преимущественно неравный, асимметричный характер? Во второй части статьи в качестве пути к разрешению поставленной научной проблемы автор обращается к наработкам методологии сетевого анализа (SNA), кратко обсуждается опыт новейших исследований в данной области. В третьей части статьи обосновывается оригинальный подход к оценке и количественному измерению межгосударственных трансферов технологий производства вооружений с помощью информации о лицензионном производстве вооружения и военной техники в базе данных SIPRI Arms Transfer Database. С опорой на предложенный метод было выполнено моделирование процесса «диффузии технологий» методом построения сетевых графов международных трансферов военных технологий за период 1950–2018 годов. Сравнение сетевых сообществ, выделенных по методу оптимизации меры модулярности Блонделя демонстрирует принципиальные различия в структуре сетевых взаимодействий между сетями «прямых» поставок вооружений и трансферов через лицензионное производство – топология сетевых графов трансферов технологий показывает значительно большую связанность вторичных поставщиков, а также существование механизмов обратной связи между ними. Динамика сетевых «кластеров» и показатели центральностей ключевых поставщиков также свидетельствуют в пользу гипотезы Краузе о взаимосвязи между темпами диффузии технологий и динамикой структуры иерархических отношений между экспортёрами и импортёрами вооружения. Результаты также подтверждают выводы предыдущих эмпирических исследований относительно структуры подсетей трансферов вооружений США и СССР: асимметрия между подсетями проявляется гораздо сильнее в сегменте трансферов лицензий.

This article explores the role of technology proliferation within the international arms trade as the major part of political structure of international system. The first part of the article suggests a brief overview of the existing studies of international arms transfer as an integral system in international relations, specifically emphasizing the impact of Krause’s (1992) “diffusion of technology” theoretical concept on the literature of 1990–2000-s. The focus of the review is on the intersection between the studies of specific technological transfers and more generalized empirical research works reveals an interesting scientific puzzle – on the one hand key arms manufacturer states accumulate most of the military R&D thus securing their place on the top of the suppliers’ hierarchy, but on the other hand more and more states acquire capabilities to produce military hardware and they more willingly interact with each other establishing strong horizontal bonds with each other to achieve some political independence and maximize economic efficiency (so-called globalization of arms production). In the second part of the article, the network-based approach is suggested as a solution to the market-hierarchy paradox, with some overview of the latest research of arms transfers via Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology. The third and the last part of the article provides first empirical investigation of the international military technology transfers using original operationalization approach based on SIPRI Arms Transfer Database information of localized production interstate transfers. Finally, the network graphs are constructed to compare general centrality metrics and locate network communities using the Blondel’s method for community detection. The network topology demonstrates significant interconnections between secondary suppliers within technology transfers sub-network, compared to “regular” transfers sub-network, as well as the existence of a “feedback loop” for the license transfers. Overall the empirical results provide positive evidence for Krause’s “diffusion of technology” concept and also support previous network studies of dissimilarities between USA and USSR dependent sub-network – the asymmetry between them appears to be even more stark on the license transfers data.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.