intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2022.20.4.71.2intertrends-240Research ArticleПИСЬМО В РЕДАКЦИЮLETTER TO THE EDITORПереломный момент в мировом развитии. Сохранит ли Запад преобладающее влияние на формирование мирового порядка XXI века?Turning point in global development. Will the West keep its predominant influence on world order in the 21st century?ШаклеинаТ.ShakleinaT.

Татьяна Шаклеина

Москва

Tatyana Shakleina

Moscow, 119454

shakleina.t.a@inno.mgimo.ruМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation202230122022204622Copyright © Шаклеина Т., 20222022Шаклеина Т.Shakleina T.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/240

2022 год характеризуется как переломный в мировом развитии и в формировании мирового порядка. Двумя основными событиями, по мнению довольно большого числа авторов, знаменующими это особенное значение 2022 года, стали «украинский кризис» и ХХ съезд КПК, декларировавший начало нового этапа в международной деятельности КНР, который позволит Китаю достичь всеобъемлющего глобального влияния и управления или наравне с США, или превышающего американское. Перспектива формирования «нового биполярного мира» уже упоминалась в отдельных работах, но ни американские, ни большая часть российских политологов не высказывали большого оптимизма относительно такой перспективы. После более откровенных заявлений лидера КНР и китайских политологов следует уделить этому вопросу больше внимания, не продвигать идею новой биполярности, которая ещё не состоялась и вполне может не осуществиться. Также не совсем верно ставить мировое развитие и развитие регионов и стран «в контекст украинского кризиса», который является продуктом социальной инженерии ряда западных стран и развивается в контексте порядкоформирующей стратегии США и их союзников. Автор статьи предлагает по-иному взглянуть на международные отношения и выдвигает следующую гипотезу: к 2022 г. процесс формирования мирового порядка вступил в решающую фазу, когда именно противостояние России и США является ключевым фактором, исход которого определит структуру и институциональные основы мирового порядка ХХI века, его характер или как полицентрично-демократический (не в западной трактовке), или имперско-гегемонистский, вероятнее всего, в американо-китайском варианте.

2022 could be characterized as crucial for the formation of world order and future world development. Very often we hear that the most important events of 2022 are “the Ukrainian crisis” and XX Convention of the Communist Party of China that declared the beginning of the new period in the Chinese international strategy aimed at reaching global status and influence either equal to American or even greater. Idea of the new bipolar world order has been mentioned, and even acknowledged by certain American and Russian scholars. However, there is no great optimism about such a prospect. It is only a supposition, and a rather unrealistic one. Russia is not interested in this kind of world order. It is also not quite correct to examine everything that is going on in the world in the context of the “Ukrainian crisis”, which is the product of the Western/American policy of social engineering in various countries aimed at their transformation on the basis of Western values. Such policy begun in 1992 has been part of the American global strategy to establish liberal world order with the domineering role of the United States. We suggest taking a new look at international relations. By 2022, the megatrend of the world order formation of the 21st century had entered its decisive phase. The crucial factor that will influence the outcome of this process is developing confrontation between Russia and the West/US/NATO. The result will determine whether we shall live either in a just polycentric world order, or in imperial-hegemonic order (possibly, US-China order). Russia is in a very unfavorable international situation; however, it must continue its efforts in world order formation putting efforts into propaganda of peace and necessity of establishing new institutions not Western-centered reflecting and satisfying interests of the majority of the world community.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.