intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2021.19.1.64.8intertrends-242Research ArticleСтатьиИнструментализация миграции управление миграционными потоками в двустороннем форматеMigration statecraft managing migration flows at a bilateral levelПаганиК.PaganiC.

Камилла Пагани

Москва

Camilla Pagani

Moscow, 119454

pagani.camilla@gmail.comМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation202130032021191103119Copyright © Пагани К., 20212021Пагани К.Pagani C.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/242

В настоящей статье разрабатываются теоретические подходы к оценке результатов инструментализации миграции и миграционной дипломатии в межгосударственных отношениях. В первом разделе представлен обзор рисков и проблем миграции с точки зрения литературы по международным отношениям и политической теории. В частности, миграция бросает вызов модели национального государства, на которой базируются устоявшиеся исследовательские традиции. Во втором разделе демонстрируется, как государство посредством секьюритизации использует миграционные потоки в качестве инструмента для подтверждения своих определяющих характеристик: укрепления национальных границ, легитимации государственного суверенитета и поддержания общественной безопасности. В третьем разделе обосновывается полезность концепции инструментализации (statecraft) для анализа миграции на двустороннем уровне. Посредством миграционной политики возможно причинять вред другим государствам, сдерживать их, усиливать переговорные позиции, повышать ставки в ходе конфликта. В последнем разделе статьи представлены исследования, демонстрирующие, каким образом США, Россия, а также некоторые государства–члены Европейского Союза пытаются использовать миграцию как внешнеполитический ресурс. Приведённые примеры показывают, что «управление» миграционными потоками может предприниматься в целях получения преференций в торговле, принуждения к сотрудничеству в асимметричных отношениях, способа выдвинуть политическую угрозу или повысить градус конфликта. Применение концепции statecraft к анализу миграции позволяет выявить преимущества этой концепции как инструмента анализа по сравнению с устоявшимися подходами к исследованию внешней политики. Например, попытки выявить долгосрочную стратегию государств посредством традиционного анализа внешней политики чаще всего не дают убедительных основооперационализируемых результатов; в то же время формы и методы управления ресурсами внешней политики государства остаются стабильными на протяжении длительного времени и могут служить надёжным ориентиром для наблюдателей.

This article assesses the theoretical contours and effectiveness of migration governance and diplomacy as an instrument of statecraft in interstate relations. The first part provides an overview of the stakes and challenges of migration within the fields of international relations and political theory. In particular, the category of migration defies the theoretical model of the nation-state, on which traditional IR and political theory are grounded. The second part highlights how the state, through the securitization of migration, uses migration as a tool to reaffirm its defining features: reinforcing its borders, legitimating state sovereignty, and building societal security. The third section demonstrates the usefulness of the category of statecraft within the context of migration governance at a bilateral level owing to the absence of a global normative framework. This relationship can serve different purposes, depending on the context: to harm, to deter, to bargain, to escalate. The last section presents contemporary case studies of the application of migration statecraft by the United States and Russia, as well as by member states along external border of the European Union and within the Schengen space. The elements of "migration statecraft" evidenced by these episodes focus on several objectives: trade blackmail, cooperation in an asymmetrical relation, political threat, and diplomatic escalation for electoral purposes. The variety of these cases illustrates the specificity of statecraft in comparison with foreign policy analysis. While the latter refers to a general and long-term strategy, the former is context-dependent and specific to achievement of a precise desired outcome.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.