intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2021.19.2.65.7intertrends-248Research ArticleРЕАЛЬНОСТЬ И ТЕОРИЯREALITY AND THEORYЭхо арабской весны в Западной Европе опыт количественного анализаEcho of arab spring in Western Europe a quantitative analysisХохловН.KhokhlovN.

Никита Хохлов

Москва

Дублин

Nikita Khokhlov

Moscow, 101000

Dublin, D09V209

nvkhokhlovhse@gmail.comВасильевА.VasilievA.

Алексей Васильев

Москва

Alexey Vasiliev

Moscow, 123001

Moscow, 117198

БеличенкоА.BelichenkoA.

Ангелина Беличенко

Москва

Angelina Belichenko

Moscow, 101000

КирдянкинаП.KirdyankinaP.

Полина Кирдянкина

Москва

Polina Kirdyankina

Moscow, 101000

КоротаевА.KorotayevA.

Андрей Коротаев

Москва

Andrey Korotayev

Moscow, 101000

Moscow, 123001

Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Городской университет ДублинаРоссияHSE University; Dublin City UniversityRussian FederationИнститут Африки РАНРоссияInstitute for African Studies of the RAS; RUDN UniversityRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»РоссияHSE UniversityRussian FederationНациональный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики»; Институт Африки РАНРоссияHSE University; Institute for African Studies of the RASRussian Federation2021300620211922149Copyright © Хохлов Н., Васильев А., Беличенко А., Кирдянкина П., Коротаев А., 20212021Хохлов Н., Васильев А., Беличенко А., Кирдянкина П., Коротаев А.Khokhlov N., Vasiliev A., Belichenko A., Kirdyankina P., Korotayev A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/248

Проведённый нами анализ позволяет говорить о двух волнах эха Арабской весны в Западной Европе. Первая волна, наблюдавшаяся непосредственно в 2011 году, выразилась в росте преимущественно мирных протестов. С учётом имеющихся данных взрывообразное увеличение количества зафиксированных в Западной Европе в 2011 г. антиправительственных демонстраций, массовых беспорядков и политических забастовок можно с высокой степенью достоверности связать именно с влиянием Арабской весны. В 2012–2014 годах, несмотря на исчезновение «арабского импульса», протестное движение в Западной Европе продолжилось на высоком уровне в значительной мере под влиянием второй волны финансово-экономического кризиса и тем самым приобрело собственную логику. Вторая волна эха Арабской весны в Западной Европе наблюдалась с существенным временным лагом, в 2014–2015 годах, и проявилась прежде всего бурным ростом террористической (главным образом исламистской) активности. Одним из последствий Арабской весны стал коллапс или резкое ослабление нескольких ранее вполне дееспособных арабских авторитарных режимов, что привело к усилению террористических организаций разного рода, стремительному росту их влияния и повышению эффективности организационных форм – в том числе, что очень важно для Западной Европы, в киберпространстве. Террористическая деятельность проникала из арабских стран в Западную Европу по разным каналам: и через беженцев, и посредством достаточно эффективной интернет-пропаганды ИГИЛ (террористическая организация, запрещённая на территории Российской Федерации), и через возвращавшихся джихадистов. Вторая волна, выразившаяся в некотором росте протестной активности, радикально отличалась от протестов 2011 года, поскольку речь шла об организованных преимущественно правыми силами протестах против притока иммигрантов, порождённого в очень высокой степени именно цунами Арабской весны.

Our analysis allows us to talk about two waves of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe. The first wave was observed in 2011 and was expressed in the explosive growth of mainly peaceful protests. Taking into account the data on the direct impact of the events of the Arab Spring on the protest activity in Western Europe, the explosive increase in the number of anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes recorded in Western Europe in 2011 can be attributed to the influence of the Arab Spring up to a very considerable extent. In 2012–2014 the protest movement in Western Europe acquired its own logic and continued at a fairly high level, despite the disappearance of the "Arab impulse" – to a large extent under the influence of the second wave of the financial and economic crisis. The second wave of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe was observed with a noticeable time lag in 2014–2015. and manifested primarily in the form of rapid growth of terrorist (mainly Islamist) activities. One of the consequences of the Arab Spring was the collapse or sharp weakening of several sufficiently effective Arab authoritarian regimes, which led to a significant improvement in the possibility of the activities of terrorist organizations of various kinds, the rapid growth of their strength, influence and effectiveness of organizational forms – including, which is very important for Western Europe, in cyber space. Terrorist activities penetrated from Arab countries to Western Europe through various channels: refugees, quite effective Internet propaganda of ISIS, jihadists returning to Western Europe, and so on. The second wave was expressed in a certain increase in protest activity, but it radically differed from the protests in 2011, since in the latter case it was a matter of the protests organized mainly by the right-wing forces against the migrant wave, which was generated to a very high degree by the tsunami of the Arab Spring.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.