intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2021.19.4.67.2intertrends-267Research ArticleФИКСИРУЕМ ТЕНДЕНЦИЮCATCHING A TRENDЗона свободной торговли ЕАЭС–Индия параметры и потенциалEAEU–India free trade area potential tariff liberalization effects for RussiaАраповаЕ.ArapovaE.

Екатерина Арапова

Москва

Ekaterina Arapova

Moscow 119454

e.arapova@my.mgimo.ruМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation2021301220211946888Copyright © Арапова Е., 20212021Арапова Е.Arapova E.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/267

2017 г. между странами–участницами Евразийского экономического союза (ЕАЭС) и Индией начались переговоры о создании зоны свободной торговли, в ходе которых обсуждаются в первую очередь вопросы либерализации торговли, в том числе снижение и обнуление ставок таможенных пошлин, а также устранение нетарифных ограничений. Цель настоящего исследования заключается в количественной оценке потенциального влияния взаимной тарифной либерализации на динамику двусторонней торговли России и Индии, позволяющей выработать ключевые принципы переговорной позиции России (в составе ЕАЭС) с учётом её стратегических интересов. Методология исследования основана на модели частичного равновесия SMART и качественном анализе тенденций импортного спроса и степени торгового протекционизма со стороны Индии в отношении поставок из стран–участниц ЕАЭС. В рамках исследования было установлено, что в случае симметричной тарифной либерализации потенциальный рост российского экспорта в Индию может оказаться выше соответствующих эффектов по импорту, что позволит увеличить положительное сальдо двусторонней торговли. Это отвечает интересам России, однако в условиях хронического торгового дефицита вряд ли соответствует приоритетам Индии. Реализация интеграционного сценария может способствовать диверсификации сырьевого компонента российского экспорта за счёт роста поставок угля, в меньшей степени – металлов (алюминия, меди и изделий из них), тогда как возможности нарастить экспорт высокотехнологичной продукции ограниченны. Зона свободной торговли может стать важным инструментом укрепления на индийском рынке позиций российских экспортёров удобрений и отдельных категорий сельскохозяйственной продукции, спрос на которые в Индии стремительно увеличивается. Индия, в свою очередь, может укрепиться на российском рынке лекарственных средств, а также нарастить экспорт текстильной продукции, украшений и отдельных категорий сельскохозяйственной продукции.

In 2017, negotiations on the free trade area between India and the EAEU countries entered an active phase. The directions of the negotiation process cover the issues of import tariff liberalization, and the elimination of non-tariff restrictions. The study aims at quantifying the potential impact of mutual tariff liberalization on the dynamics of bilateral trade between Russia and India, in order to develop key principles for Russia's negotiating position (as part of the EAEU), taking into account its strategic priorities. The research methodology bases on the SMART partial equilibrium model and a qualitative analysis of contemporary trends in import demand and the degree of India’s trade protectionism towards imports from the EAEU countries. The study found that the symmetric bilateral tariff liberalization may result in the higher potential increase in Russian exports to India than in the corresponding effects on imports, which will increase the bilateral trade surplus. This is in the interests of Russia, but it hardly meets the strategic interests of India due to its chronic trade deficit. The free trade area may lead to the diversification of the commodity component of Russian exports due to the growing export supplies of Russian coal, to a lesser extent – of metals (aluminum, copper and articles thereof). However, the opportunities to increase the share of high-tech products in the structure of Russian exports remain limited. The free trade area can become an important tool for strengthening Russian exporters of fertilizers, as well as certain categories of agricultural products. In turn, Indian exporters can strengthen their positions on the Russian market of medicines, as well as increase the share of textile products, jewelry and certain categories of agricultural products. The results can serve for developing the position of Russia (as a EAEU member) in multilateral negotiations.

ЕАЭСРоссияИндиязона свободной торговлиSMART-модельэконометрический анализэффекты тарифной либерализацииэкономическая интеграциятаможенные пошлинывнешнеторговая политикаEAEURussiaIndiafree trade areaSMART-modeleconometric analysistariff liberalization effectseconomic integrationcustoms dutiesforeign trade policyСтатья подготовлена при финансовой поддержке МГИМО МИД России в рамках проекта №1923-03-03.ReferencesБрагина Е.А. Индия: новые черты экономической политики // Год планеты. Ежегодник. 2015. С. 331–341.Ahmad K., Safdar A., Amjad A. (2018). Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan. MPRA. 23 p.Валуева И.А., Коновалова Ю.А. Военно-техническое сотрудничество двух региональных держав: новые вызовы для России и Индии // Вестник РУДН. Серия: Экономика. 2018. № 1(26). С. 28–37.Amjadi A., Schuler P., Kuwahara H., Quadros S. (2011). WITS: user’s manual. Washington DC: UNCTAD, UNSD, WTO, WB. 187 p.Галищева Н.В., Небольсина Е.В. США и Китай во внешнеэкономической политике Индии: в поисках баланса для сохранения стратегической автономии // Вестник РУДН. Серия: Международные отношения. 2021. № 2. С. 304–324.Arapova E.Y. (2018). Determinants of Household Final Consumption Expenditures in Asian Countries: a Panel Model, 1991–2015. Applied Econometrics and International Development. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 121–140.Евразийский экономический союз / Под ред. Е. Ю. Винокурова. СПб.: ЦИИ ЕАБР, 2017. 287 с.Armington P. S. (1969). A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. Vol. 16. No. 1. P. 159–176.Захаров А.И. Вступление Индии в глобальный мир: особенности пути // Россия и современный мир. 2020. № 2. С. 113–134.Baldwin R. E., Lewis W. E., Richardson J.D. (1980). Welfare effects on the United States of a significant multilateral tariff reduction. Journal of International Economics. Vol. 10. No. 3. P. 405–423.Захаров А.И. Региональные аспекты российско-индийских отношений // Вестник Института востоковедения РАН. 2018. № 6. С. 109–115.Bhagwati J.N. (1988). Protectionism. Cambridge (Mass.): MIT Press. 147 p.Коновалова Ю.А. Россия–Индия: сотрудничество в XXI веке. М.: Экон-Информ, 2017. 251 с.Bragina Y.A. (2015). Indiya: novyye cherty ekonomicheskoy politiki [India: New Features of Economic Policy. Year of the Planet]. God planety. Yezhegodnik. P. 331–341.Кофнер Ю. Либерализация торговли с Индией даст ЕАЭС 4,6 млрд долларов ежегодно. РСМД, Большая Евразия, 2020. URL: https://russiancouncil.ru/blogs/GreaterEurasia/35121/?sphrase_id=83508605Cheong D. (2010). Methods for Ex Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements. ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration. No. 52. P. 1–36.Лихачёва А.Б., Калачигин Г.М. Оценка рисков либерализации торговли товарами со странами Азии в рамках российской политики «Поворота на Восток» // Вестник международных организаций. 2018. Т. 13. № 3. С. 52–69.Choudhry S., Kallummal M., Varma P. (2013). Impact of India-ASEAN free trade agreement: a cross-country analysis using applied general equilibrium modelling. New Delhi: Centre for WTO studies. 59 p.Лунёв С.И. Россия и Индия в Индо-Тихоокеанском регионе и фактор США // Актуальные проблемы Европы. 2020. № 1(105). С.182–212.Cline W. R., Kawanabe T.O., Kronsjo M., Williamset T. (1978). Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment. Brookings Institution. 314 p.Маляров О.В. Экономическая реформа в Индии. М., 2007. 76 с.Denisov I., Safranchuk I, Bochkov D. (2020). China-India Relations in Eurasia: Historical Legacy and the Changing Global Context. Human Affairs. Vol. 30. P. 224–238.Ниведита Дас Кунду. Российско-индийские отношения: прошлое, настоящее, будущее. Международный дискуссионный клуб «Валдай», 2016. URL: https://ru.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/rossiysko-indiyskie-otnosheniya/Ebrill L., Stotsky J., Gropp R. (1999). Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization. International Monetary Fund. IMF Occasional Paper No.180. Washington DC, USA. 47 p.Ahmad K., Safdar A., Amjad A. Trade Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization in Pakistan. MPRA, 2018. 23 p.Feenstra R. (1995). Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy. NBER Working Paper, 5051. P. 2–60.Amjadi A., Schuler P., Kuwahara H., Quadros S. WITS: user’s manual. UNCTAD, UNSD, WTO, WB, Washington, 2011. 187 p.Feenstra R. (2003). Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence (2nd ed). Princeton University Press. 657 p.Arapova E.Y. Determinants of Household Final Consumption Expenditures in Asian Countries: a Panel Model, 1991–2015 // Applied Econometrics and International Development. 2018. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 121–140.FICCI. (2016). India EAEU FTA Survey Report. 32 р.Armington P.S. A Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by Place of Production // International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. 1969. Vol. 16. No. 1. P. 159–176.Francois J.F., Martin W. (2004). Commercial Policy Variability, Bindings, and Market Access. European Economic Review. Vol. 48. No. 3. P. 665–679.Baldwin R.E., Lewis W.E., Richardson J.D. Welfare effects on the United States of a significant multilateral tariff reduction // Journal of International Economics. 1980. Vol. 10. No. 3. P. 405–423.Galishcheva N.V., Nebol'sina E.V. (2021). SSHA i Kitay vo vneshneekonomicheskoy politike Indii: v poiskakh balansa dlya sokhraneniya strategicheskoy avtonomii [USA and China in India's Foreign Economic Policy: in Search of a Balance for Maintaining Strategic Autonomy]. Vestnik RUDN. Seriya: Mezhdunarodnyye otnosheniya. No. 2. P. 304–324.Bhagwati J.N. Protectionism. Cambridge: MIT Press, 1988. 147 p.Goldstein M., Kahn M.S. (1978). The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach. The Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 60. No. 2. P. 275–286.Cheong D. Methods for Ex Ante Economic Evaluation of Free Trade Agreements // ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration. No. 52. 2010. Р. 1–36.Greenaway D., Sapsford D. (1994). Exports, growth, and liberalization: An evaluation. Journal of Policy Modeling. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 165–186.Choudhry S., Kallummal M., Varma P. Impact of India-ASEAN free trade agreement: a cross-country analysis using applied general equilibrium modelling. New Delhi: Centre for WTO studies, 2013. 59 p.Helpman E. (2011). Understanding Global Trade. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. 232 p.Cline W.R., Kawanabe T.O., Kronsjo M., Williamset T. Trade Negotiations in the Tokyo Round: A Quantitative Assessment. Brookings Institution, 1978. 314 p.Houthakker H.S., Magee S.P. (1969). Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade. Review of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 51. P. 111–125.Denisov I., Safranchuk I., Bochkov D. China-India Relations in Eurasia: Historical Legacy and the Changing Global Context // Human Affairs. 2020. Vol. 30. P. 224–238.Karingi S., Oulmane N., Lang R. (2005). Assessment of the impact of the economic partnership agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union. Addis Ababa: African Trade Policy Center. 50 p.Ebrill L., Stotsky J., Gropp R. Revenue Implications of Trade Liberalization. International Monetary Fund. IMF Occasional Paper No. 180. Washington, USA, 1999. 47 p.Kofner Yu. (2020). Liberalizatsiya torgovli s Indiyey dast YEAES 4,6 mlrd dollarov yezhegodno [Liberalization of Trade with India Will Give the EAEU $ 4.6 billion Annually]. RIAC, Bol'shaya Yevraziya. Konovalova Y.A. (2017). Rossiya-Indiya: sotrudnichestvo v XXI veke [Russia-India: Cooperation in the 21st Century]. Moscow: Ekon-Inform. 251 p.Feenstra R. Estimating the Effects of Trade Policy. NBER Working Paper, 5051, 1995. P. 2–60.Krueger A.O. (1998). Why Trade Liberalization is Good for Growth. The Economic Journal. Vol. 108. P. 1513–1522.Feenstra R. Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence (2nd ed). Princeton University Press, 2003. 657 p.Krugman P.R. (1979). Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade. Journal of International Economics. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 469–479.Francois J.F., Martin W. Commercial Policy Variability, Bindings, and Market Access // European Economic Review. 2004. Vol. 48. No. 3. P. 665–679.Lang R. (2006). A partial equilibrium analysis of the impact of the ECOWAS-EU, Economic Partnership Agreement. Purdue University. 33 p.Goldstein M., Kahn M.S. The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach // The Review of Economics and Statistics. 1978. Vol. 60. No. 2. P. 275–286.Leamer E.E., Levinsohn J. (1995). International trade theory: The evidence. Handbook of International Economics. No. 3. P. 1339–1394.Greenaway D., Sapsford D. Exports, growth, and liberalization: An evaluation // Journal of Policy Modeling. 1994. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 165–186.Likhacheva A.B., Kalachigin G.M. (2018). Otsenka riskov liberalizatsii torgovli so stranami Azii v ramkakh rossiyskoy politiki “Povorota na Vostok” [Assessment of the Risks of Trade Liberalization with Asian Countries in the Framework of the Russian Policy "Turn to the East"]. Vestnik mezhdunarodnykh organizatsij. Vol. 13. No. 3. P. 52–69.Helpman E. Understanding Global Trade. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2011. 232 p.Lunev S.I. (2020). Rossiya i Indiya v Indo-Tikhookeanskom regione i faktor SSHA [Russia and India in the Indo-Pacific Region and the US Factor]. Aktual'nyye problemy Yevropy. No. 1(105). P. 182–212.Houthakker H.S., Magee S.P. Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade // Review of Economics and Statistics. 1969. No. 51. P. 111–125.Malyarov O.V. (2007). Ekonomicheskaya reforma v Indii [Economic Reform in India]. Moscow. 76 p.India EAEU FTA Survey Report. FICCI, 2016. 32 р.Nenci S. (2011). Tariff Liberalisation and the Growth of World Trade: A Comparative Historical Analysis of the Multilateral Trading System. The World Economy. Vol. 34. No. 10. P. 1809–1835.Karingi S., Oulmane N., Lang R. Assessment of the impact of the economic partnership agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union. Addis Ababa: African Trade Policy Center, 2005. 50 p.Nivedita Das Kundu. (2016). Rossiysko-indiyskiye otnosheniya: proshloye, nastoyashcheye, budushcheye [Russian-Indian Relations: Past, Present, Future]. Mezhdunarodnyj diskussionnyj klub Valdai. 2016. URL: https://ru.valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/rossiysko-indiyskie-otnosheniya/Krueger A.O. Why Trade Liberalization is Good for Growth // The Economic Journal. 1998. Vol. 108. P. 1513–1522.Ostry J.D. (1991). Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs. International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. Vol. 38. No. 3. P. 447–479.Krugman P.R. Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade // Journal of International Economics. 1979. Vol. 9. No. 4. P. 469–479.Pant H. (2017). India-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation: The Way Ahead. RF Issue Brief, June. P. 1–8.Lang R. A partial equilibrium analysis of the impact of the ECOWAS-EU, Economic Partnership Agreement. Purdue University, 2006. 33 р.Peters A. (2002). The Fiscal Effects of Tariff Reduction in the Caribbean Community. CARICOM Secretariat. 38 p.Leamer E.E., Levinsohn J. International trade theory: The evidence // Handbook of International Economics. 1995. No. 3. Р. 1339–1394.Piermartini R., Teh R. (2005). Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy. WTO Discussion Paper. No. 10. 59 p.Plummer M.G., Cheong D., Hamanaka S. Methodology for impact assessment of free trade agreements. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2010. 120 p.Plummer M.G., Cheong D., Hamanaka S. (2010). Methodology for impact assessment of free trade agreements. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank. 120 p.Nenci S. Tariff Liberalisation and the Growth of World Trade: A Comparative Historical Analysis of the Multilateral Trading System // The World Economy. 2011. Vol. 34. No. 10. P. 1809–1835.Porter M.E. (1985). The Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. NY: Free Press. 592 p.Ostry J.D. Trade Liberalization in Developing Countries: Initial Trade Distortions and Imported Intermediate Inputs // International Monetary Fund Staff Papers. 1991. Vol. 38. No. 3. P. 447–479.Rose A.K. (2002). Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? NBER Working Paper, 9273. P. 2–11.Pant H. India-Russia Economic and Energy Cooperation: The Way Ahead // RF Issue Brief, June, 2017. Р. 1–8.Salvatore D. (2013). International Economics: Trade and Finance (13th ed). John Wiley & Sons. 836 p.Peters A. The Fiscal Effects of Tariff Reduction in the Caribbean Community. CARICOM Secretariat, 2002. 38 p.Sequeira S. (2016). Corruption, trade costs, and gains from tariff liberalization: evidence from Southern Africa. American Economic Review. Vol. 106. No. 10. P. 3029–3063.Piermartini R., Teh R. Demystifying Modelling Methods for Trade Policy // WTO Discussion Paper. 2005. No. 10. P. 1–59.Shikin V., Bhandari A. (2017). Russia – India Energy Cooperation: Trade, Joint Projects, and New Areas. Policy Brief. RIAC and Gateway House. 37 p.Porter M.E. The Competitive Advantage: Creating and Sustaining Superior Performance. NY: Free Press, 1985. 592 p.Singh R., Sharma S.P. (2017). India – Eurasian Economic Union Relations. Fortifying Trade and Tourism Prospects. PHD Research Bureau. 13 p.Rose A.K. Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? NBER Working Paper, 9273, 2002. P. 2–11.Sinha A. (2019). A theory of reform consolidation in India: From crisis-induced reforms to strategic internationalization. India Review. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 54–87.Salvatore D. International Economics: Trade and Finance (13th Ed). John Wiley & Sons, 2013. 836 p.SIPRI. (2021). Trends in International Arms Transfers.Sequeira S. Corruption, trade costs, and gains from tariff liberalization: evidence from Southern Africa // American Economic Review. 2016. Vol. 106. No. 10. P. 3029–3063.Strategy for New India @75. (2019). Niti Aayng.Shikin V., Bhandari A. Russia – India Energy Cooperation: Trade, Joint Projects, and New Areas. Policy Brief. RIAC and Gateway House, 2017. P. 2–37.Trefler D. (1993). Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy. Journal of Political Economy. Vol. 101. P. 138–160.Singh R., Sharma S.P. India – Eurasian Economic Union Relations. Fortifying Trade and Tourism Prospects. PHD Research Bureau, 2017. 13 р.Valuyeva I.A., Konovalova YU.A. (2018). Voyenno-tekhnicheskoye sotrudnichestvo dvukh regional'nykh derzhav: novyye vyzovy dlya Rossii i Indii [Military-Technical Cooperation between Two Regional Powers: New Challenges for Russia and India]. Vestnik RUDN. Seriya: Ekonomika. No. 1(26). P. 28–37.Sinha A. A theory of reform consolidation in India: From crisis-induced reforms to strategic internationalization // India Review. 2019. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 54–87.Viner J. (1961). The Customs Union Issue. Washington DC: Anderson Kramer Associates. 247 p.SIPRI Fact Sheet 2021. Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2020.Wang Q. (2001). Import-Reducing Effect of Trade Barriers: a Cross-Country Investigation. IMF Working Paper, 1216. 53 p.Strategy for New India @75, Niti Aayng. Trefler D. Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy // Journal of Political Economy. 1993. Vol. 101. P. 138–160.Vinokurov E. Yu. (ed.) (2017). Yevraziyskiy ekonomicheskiy soyuz [Eurasian Economic Union]. St. Petersburg: EDB Center for Integration Studies. 287 p.Viner J. The Customs Union Issue. Washington DC: Anderson Kramer Associates, Edition 1961. 247 p.Zakharov A. (2019). The Geopolitics of the US-India-Russia Strategic Triangle. Strategic Analysis. Vol. 43. No. 5. P. 357–371.Wang Q. Import-Reducing Effect of Trade Barriers: a Cross-Country Investigation. IMF Working Paper, 1216, 2001. P. 1–53.Zakharov A.I. (2018). Regional’nye aspekty rossijsko-indijskikh otnoshenij [Regional Aspects of Russian-Indian Relations]. Vestnik Instituta vostokovedeniya RAN. No. 6. P. 109–115.Zakharov A. The Geopolitics of the US-India-Russia Strategic Triangle // Strategic Analysis. 2019. Vol. 43. No. 5. P. 357–371.Zakharov A.I. (2020). Vstupleniye Indii v global'nyy mir: osobennosti puti [India's Entry into the Global World: Features of the Path]. Rossiya i sovremennyj mir. No. 2. P. 113–134.Zakharov А. Exploring New Drivers in India-Russia Cooperation. RF Occasional Paper, 2017. 34 p.Zakharov А. (2017). Exploring New Drivers in India-Russia Cooperation. RF Occasional Paper. 34 p.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.