intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2022.20.4.71.6intertrends-276Research ArticleФИКСИРУЕМ ТЕНДЕНЦИЮCATCHING A TRENDКонцепции «управляемой конкуренции» в военно-политических отношениях США и Китая. Теоретическое осмысление и практическое воплощениеThe “managed competition” concept in the US–China security nexus. Theoretical analysis and practical implementationЩербуновВ.ShcherbunovV.

Владимир Щербунов

Москва

Vladimir Shcherbunov

Moscow, 119454

vshcherbunov@yandex.ruМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation20223012202220493118Copyright © Щербунов В., 20222022Щербунов В.Shcherbunov V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/276

С приходом к власти президента Дж. Байдена в лексиконе американских политиков и экспертов всё чаще стали появляться идеи «управляемости» и «регулируемости» соперничества на глобальном и региональном уровнях, прежде всего в отношении конкуренции США и КНР. Большинство работ по конкуренции двух держав подчёркивают её невоенные аспекты, что не отражает усилия, которые США прикладывают к удержанию превосходства в военно-политической сфере, а также значимости её регулирования для предотвращения вооружённых конфликтов между двумя странами. Настоящая статья стремится решить двуединую задачу: во-первых, выявить смысловое содержание концепции «управляемой конкуренции» (managed competition) и, во-вторых, определить подходы к ограничению рисков эскалации в американской политике на азиатском направлении. Проанализировав академические и аналитические работы последних лет, посвящённые феномену «управляемости», автор приходит к выводу, что содержательно концепция «управляемой конкуренции» включает в себя три компонента: 1) регулирования конкуренции посредством институционализации отношений с целью повышения их предсказуемости, усиления мер кризисного регулирования и снижения конфликтогенного потенциала, 2) опережающего программирования действий международных игроков путём создания стимулов и сдерживающих факторов для принятия внешнеполитических решений, 3) определения мер, необходимых для достижения успеха в конкуренции (англ. outcompeting). На практике управление конкуренцией в военно-политических отношениях США и КНР реализуется в 1) создании двусторонних и многосторонних институтов для снижения вероятности инцидентов между вооружёнными силами сторон (регулирования взаимодействия между вооружёнными силами США и союзников и Китаем в Южно-Китайском море и Западной части Тихого океана), 2) определении повестки в Азиатско-Тихоокеанском регионе (концепции «индо-тихоокеанского региона» и «свободного и открытого Тихого океана»), консолидации и расширении военно-политических институтов США (QUAD, AUKUS) с приданием им антикитайской направленности, 3) действиях США, затрудняющих реализацию таких военно-политических целей КНР, как воссоединение с Тайванем, контроль над Южно-Китайским морем, расширение военно-политических контактов КНР со странами Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона.

With the inauguration of President John Biden, the ideas of “managing” competition between the United States and China increasingly began to appear in the lexicon of American politicians and pundits. Most works on US-China competition emphasize its non-military aspects, which does not reflect the efforts that the US puts into competition in the military-political domain, as well as the importance of its regulation in preventing armed conflict between the two powers. This study seeks to solve a dual task: firstly, to identify the ideational content of the concept of "managed competition", and secondly, to analyze the existing formats of managing US-China military-political competition in the Asia-Pacific region in the 21st century. After analyzing the academic and analytical works of recent years, the author concludes that the concept of "managed competition" comprises three components: 1) regulation of competition through institutionalization in order to increase the predictability, strengthen crisis management mechanisms and reduce conflict potential, 2) anticipatory programming of the actions of international actors by creating incentives and deterrents for making foreign policy decisions, 3) describing the measures necessary to achieve success in competition (outcompeting). At a practical level, the management of competition in the military-political relations between the United States and China implies 1) the creation of international institutions to reduce the like-lihood of military incidents in the South China Sea and the Western Pacific, 2) setting the agenda in the Asia-Pacific region (the concept of the "Indo-Pacific region"), the consolidation and expansion of US military-political institutions (QUAD, AUKUS) with giving them the anti-Chinese focus, 3) US actions that impede the implementation of PRC’s military-political goals: reunification with Taiwan, control over the South China Sea, expansion of military-political contacts with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.