References

intertrends

Международные процессы

International Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy

1728-27561811-2773

AEFIR

10.17994/2023.21.3.74.3

intertrends-365

Research Article

РЕАЛЬНОСТЬ И ТЕОРИЯ

REALITY AND THEORY

Оценка устойчивости региональной интеграции в условиях пандемии COVID-19

Exploring Regional Integration Resilience in the Context of COVID-19

Арапова

Екатерина

Arapova

Ekaterina

МГИМО МИД России, МоскваРоссияMGIMO University, MoscowRussian Federation

2023

19022024

2135068

2023

Арапова Е.

Arapova E.

Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/365

Пандемия COVID-19 привела к нарушению традиционных торговых связей, кардинально изменив глобальную торговую среду. В условиях новых вызовов автор статьи предлагает концепцию устойчивости региональной интеграции, определяемую как способность интеграционного объединения сгладить негативное воздействие пандемии на внутрирегиональную торговлю и ограничить масштабы её краткосрочного сокращения. Учитывая укрепление цепочек поставок и более высокую экономическую взаимосвязь между интегрирующимися экономиками, автор исходит из того, что региональная экономическая интеграция может способствовать смягчению негативных последствий пандемии COVID-19. Для проверки выдвинутой гипотезы была использована расширенная гравитационная модель внешней торговли, применённая к анализу квартальных данных двусторонней торговли с января 2018 г. по декабрь 2021 г. Результаты расчётов свидетельствуют о том, что пандемия оказала значимое негативное влияние на двустороннюю торговлю. В то же время, несмотря на ожидаемое положительное влияние региональной интеграции на внутрирегиональную торговлю, данная гипотеза не подтвердилась. Расчёты показали, что региональная интеграция в целом не способствует смягчению негативных последствий пандемии и повышению устойчивости торговли в рамках региональных торговых объединений. Тем не менее влияние региональной торговой интеграции может различаться в зависимости от интеграционных блоков. Два из шести интеграционных блоков оказали существенное положительное влияние на торговлю во время пандемии – Европейский Союз и Соглашение США–Мексика–Канада (бывшая Североамериканская зона свободной торговли).

The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted traditional trade connections, significantly altering the global trade landscape. This served as a crucial stress test for international trade and regional integration blocs, challenging trade regionalization. Given these new challenges, we propose the concept of regional integration resilience, defined as the capacity of an integration bloc to mitigate the adverse impact of the pandemic on intraregional trade and minimize the immediate reduction of trade within that bloc. With the fortification of supply chains and greater economic interconnection within the integrating economies, our hypothesis is that regional economic integration could serve as a buffer against the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specifically, we have utilized fixed-effects instrumental variable regression applied to the augmented gravity model to analyze quarterly observations from January 2018 to December 2020. To gauge the influence of being in a trade bloc during the COVID-19 crisis, we introduced interaction terms (participation in a regional trade agreement and COVID-19 parameters) into the model. The findings suggest that the pandemic markedly and adversely impacted bilateral trade. Interestingly, the weight of the COVID-19 pandemic had a more pronounced effect on trade flows compared to its severity. Despite the anticipated positive effects of regional integration on intraregional trade due to its static and dynamic effects, overall, we did not observe any stabilizing influence of regional economic integration. There was no evidence that regional integration contributed to alleviating the negative effects on trade during a pandemic or fostering higher trade resilience within regional trade agreements. However, the impact of regional trade integration may vary across different integration blocs. Among the six integration blocs analyzed, two demonstrated a significant positive influence on trade during the pandemic – the European Union and the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (formerly the North American Free Trade Agreement).

региональная экономическая интеграциявнешняя торговляинтеграционная устойчивостьCOVID-19Европейский СоюзАСЕАНМЕРКОСУРЕвразийский экономический союзСодружество Независимых Государств

economic integrationregional trade agreementsinternational tradeCOVID-19 pandemicregional integration resilience.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.