intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2023.21.4.75.3intertrends-399Research ArticleФИКСИРУЕМ ТЕНДЕНЦИЮCATCHING A TRENDДолг нефинансового сектора как фактор усиления экономической неустойчивости в АзииDebt of the Non-Financial Sector and Economic Instability in AsiaНоздревСтаниславNozdrevStanislavИнститут мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова РАН, МоскваРоссияPrimakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, MoscowRussian Federation20232604202421483103Copyright © Ноздрев С., 20242024Ноздрев С.Nozdrev S.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/399

В статье рассматривается ситуация в сфере задолженности нефинансового сектора стран Азии, по основным показателям которого она занимает ведущее место среди развивающихся регионов мира. Автор ставит целью доказать возможность усиления неустойчивости в развитии этого сектора при дальнейшем росте задолженности. В работе определяется место этой части света в структуре глобального долга, степень её внешней и внутренней долговой зависимости; проводится сравнительный анализ по регионам и странам; даётся соотношение различных групп долга и оцениваются перспективы его пролонгации. Среди основных видов риска, вызванных образованием долговых обязательств нефинансового сектора, выделяются корпоративный долг и долг домохозяйств. Подчёркивается, что период снижения экономического роста и, соответственно, падения доходов ослабляет устойчивость азиатских компаний к финансовым потрясениям. Выделяется начавшийся приблизительно с 2022 г. постпандемийный этап как наиболее сложный для экономики стран Азии, поскольку усиливается уязвимость предприятий, особенно малого и среднего бизнеса, вызванная снижением объёмов поддержки правительственных программ в результате дефицитного финансирования и неспособностью обеспечить гарантии по долгам, значительная часть которых приходится на внешнюю задолженность. Высокие темпы роста задолженности домашних хозяйств как по ипотечным, так и по потребительским кредитам, превышающие темпы роста ВВП, также усиливают неопределённость экономического прогноза. Выход из рецессии, сопровождавшей пандемию коронавируса, значительно затягивается, что создаёт новые, более сложные условия для деятельности государств и компаний. Хотя основные индикаторы указывают на оживление экономической деятельности, оно будет носить неравномерный характер и углублять неравенство по отдельным странам Азии. Рецессия 2019– 2022 годов фрагментировала региональную экономику вследствие торговых, инвестиционных и финансовых ограничений и различных подходов в экономической политике, реализуемых каждой страной, что потребует значительных усилий для восстановления, а затем и выхода на новый этап финансовой интеграции региона.

The article examines the situation in the area of debt of the non-financial sector in Asia. According to the main indicators, it occupies a leading place among developing economies. The author aims to prove the possibility of increasing instability in the development of the non-financial sector with a further uptick in the debt of Asian countries. The work determines the place of Asia in the global debt of the non-financial sector, the degree of its external and internal debt dependence, conducts a comparative analysis by region and country, gives the ratio of various groups of debt and evaluates the prospects for its prolongation. Among the main risk groups posed by the formation of non-financial sector debt are corporate and household debts. It is emphasized that the period of declining economic growth and, accordingly, falling incomes weakens the resilience of Asian companies to financial shocks. The post-pandemic stage, which starts around 2022, is highlighted as the most difficult for the economies of Asian countries, as the vulnerability of companies, especially small and medium-sized businesses, increases. Government support programs are weakened as a result of deficit financing and are unable to provide guarantees on debts, a significant part of which is external. High growth rates of household debt for both mortgages and consumer loans in a number of Asian countries, exceeding GDP growth rates, also raise the uncertainty of economic forecasts. The recovery from the recession that accompanied the coronavirus pandemic is significantly delayed, which creates new, more difficult conditions for the activities of states and companies. The 2019–2022 recession fragmented the regional economy due to trade, investment and financial restrictions and different approaches to economic policies implemented by each country, which will require significant efforts to restore the financial integration of the region and usher in a new stage.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.