intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.17994/IT.2019.17.4.59.8intertrends-548Research ArticleХОЛОДНО – О ГОРЯЧЕМDEBATING AN ISSUEСтамбульский процесс по Афганистану через призму теорий урегулирования конфликтовRegional Coordination in Conflict Resolution: The Role of Istanbul Process in Stabilizing AfghanistanИшбулдинаКсенияIshbuldinaKsenia

Ишбулдина Ксения Ринатовна - соискатель МГИМО МИД России; атташе Посольства Российской Федерации в Исламской Республике Афганистан

Москва

Ms Ksenia Ishbuldina - Doctoral Student, MGIMO University; Attaché, Embassy of the Russian Federation in the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 

Moscow, 119454

kseniya.ishbuldina@mail.ruМГИМО МИД РоссииРоссияMGIMO UniversityRussian Federation201905052025174135152Copyright © Ишбулдина К., 20252025Ишбулдина К.Ishbuldina K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/548

Затяжной конфликт в Афганистане оказал влияние на жизнь всего региона: отмечается рост угрозы экстремизма и терроризма, увеличивается масштаб наркотрафика и торговли оружием, обостряются афгано-пакистанские пограничные проблемы. Силовое воздействие на конфликт не принесло желаемого результата. Коалиционные войска НАТО не сумели восстановить мир в Афганистане. На этом фоне всё больше внимания уделяется региональным подходам к урегулированию афганского конфликта. В 2011 г. был запущен Стамбульский процесс, направленный на активизацию взаимодействия Афганистана с широким кругом игроков в Евразии. Данный формат призван играть значительную роль в укреплении взаимодействия между странами-участницами, синхронизации усилий Кабула и международного сообщества на пути к региональной стабильности в «сердце Азии». Цель настоящей статьи – оценить международно-политическое значение Стамбульского процесса в контексте имеющихся теоретических подходов к урегулированию конфликтов. Опираясь на работы У. Зартмана и других специалистов, автор приходит к выводу, что затяжной характер конфликта в Афганистане определяется его пребыванием в состоянии мягкого, стабильного, самоподдерживающегося тупика. Несмотря на то что растёт неудовлетворённость непосредственно вовлечённых сторон сложившимся положением, а соответственно, и их готовность к конструктивному диалогу и болезненным уступкам, сохраняющиеся противоречия, в том числе между внешними игроками, стремящимися выступать в качестве посредников, осложняют достижение компромисса. Кроме того, в процессе мирного урегулирования наблюдается дефицит лидерства. На этом фоне развитие взаимодействия в рамках Стамбульского процесса позволило создать площадку для координации Афганистана и его соседей по вопросам безопасности и социально-экономического сотрудничества. Форум содействовал реализации ряда значимых инфраструктурных проектов. В то же время он не смог занять место центральной площадки урегулирования конфликта в Афганистане. Более того, с течением времени наблюдается снижение заинтересованности в развитии Стамбульского процесса даже его инициаторов.

The prolonged Afghan conflict affects the whole region. It has led to growing extremism and terrorism, drug and arms trafficking, Afghanistan-Pakistan border disputes. Forceful response did not bring the desired result. Coalition troops moved under NATO command failed to restore peace in the country. Against this backdrop, increasing attention is paid to the regional approach to the Afghan conflict settlement. Enhanced cooperation and economic integration could help in peace-building process. The Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process (HoA-IP) was launched in 2011 to encourage the Afghan's neighboring countries to ensure security in the region. This mechanism was designed to play a significant role in strengthening interaction between the participating countries, coordinating joint efforts of Kabul and international community towards the regional stability in the "Heart of Asia". The purpose of this article is to assess the international political significance of the HoA-IP in the context of existing theoretical approaches to conflict resolution.

The author uses the Ripe Moments Theory proposed by William Zartman to examine the Afghan conflict, as well as the work of the HoA-IP. Interactions between the regional players, main achievements and weaknesses of the mechanism are discussed. It was stated that cooperation established within the framework of the Istanbul Process enabled the establishment of a platform for coordinating efforts of Afghanistan and its neighbors on security and socio-economic cooperation. The mechanism also contributed to the implementation of a number of significant infrastructure projects. The author concludes that the HoA-IP can be effective if all the engaged countries are ready for an open dialogue and for making a change in the recent status-quo.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.