intertrendsМеждународные процессыInternational Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy1728-27561811-2773AEFIR10.46272/IT.2025.23.3.82.3intertrends-974Research ArticleОТ ТЕОРИИ К ПРАКТИКЕFROM THEORY TO PRACTICEАзербайджано-сирийские отношения: динамика и переломные моменты (1992–2025)Azerbaijan-Syria Relations: Shaping the Fluctuations Gor Gevorgyan and Turning Points (1992–2025)ПашаянАраксPashayanAraks

Пашаян Аракс кандидат исторических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Института востоковедения Национальной академии наук Республики Армения

Ереван

Dr Araks Pashayan – Lead Research Fellow, Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia

Yerevan

ГеворгянГорGevorgyanGor

Геворгян Гор – кандидат исторических наук, доцент, старший научный сотрудник Отдела арабских стран Института востоковедения Национальной академии наук Республики Армения

Ереван

Dr Gor Gevorgyan – Senior Research Fellow, Department of Arab Countries, Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia

Yerevan

gorgevorgyan1976@gmail.comВарданянГригорVardanyanGrigor

Варданян Григор – кандидат исторических наук, старший научный сотрудник Отдела арабских исследований Института востоковедения Национальной академии наук Республики Армения

Ереван

Dr Grigor Vardanyan – Senior Research Fellow, Department of Arab Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Armenia

Yerevan

Институт востоковедения Национальной академии наук Республики АрменияАрменияInstitute of Oriental Studies NAS RAArmenia20250304202623387111Copyright © Пашаян А., Геворгян Г., Варданян Г., 20262026Пашаян А., Геворгян Г., Варданян Г.Pashayan A., Gevorgyan G., Vardanyan G.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.intertrends.ru/jour/article/view/974

Эволюция отношений между Азербайджаном и Сирией отражает влияние более широких региональных процессов. До начала сирийского конфликта взаимодействие двух государств было дружественным, но без какой-либо значительной экономической или стратегической глубины. Начало гражданской войны в 2011 году в сочетании с решительной оппозицией Турции режиму Асада и её центральной ролью в формировании региональных предпочтений Азербайджана привели к временному охлаждению отношений и «дипломатическому исходу» Азербайджана из Дамаска. В то же время в Баку считали, что режим Асада, несмотря на снижение влияния армянской общины в Сирии, склонен к поддержке армянской стороны в конфликте вокруг Нагорного Карабаха. В этом контексте Баку постепенно занял второстепенную, но поддерживающую роль в региональном порядке, ориентированном на Турцию, одновременно выполняя посреднические функции по мере наступления перемен как внутри Сирии, так и в деятельности региональных альянсов. Взаимодействие Азербайджана с Дамаском включает элементы энергетической дипломатии и поддержку инициатив по восстановлению страны; такая линия нацелена на укрепление политической субъектности Баку в регионе, продвижение экономических интересов и расширение регионального влияния при сравнительно низких издержках. Деятельность Баку представляет собой комбинацию дипломатии, экономического взаимодействия и стратегического расчёта, что подчёркивает его эволюционирующую роль как гибкого и всё более влиятельного субъекта на Ближнем Востоке. Этот подход получил дополнительный импульс после победы в войне в Нагорном Карабахе в 2020 году. Возвращение Азербайджана в Сирию в конце 2024 г. является свидетельством проецирования амбиций страны за пределы Южного Кавказа.

This article examines the evolution of Azerbaijani-Syrian relations across three distinct phases: the postSoviet period, the era of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, and the emerging dynamics in post-Assad Syria. It offers a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship, focusing on its structural challenges, developmental patterns, and strategic prospects. The study argues that the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011 and the subsequent deterioration in Turkish-Syrian relations indirectly shaped Syria’s cautious posture toward Azerbaijan, given Baku’s close strategic alignment with Ankara. Despite a prolonged period of stagnation spanning over a decade, no overt diplomatic rifts developed between Baku and Damascus. The recent installation of a pro-Turkish Islamist government in Syria in December 2024, combined with the retreat of Iranian and Russian influence, has opened new strategic avenues for Azerbaijan to expand its regional presence. Supported by Ankara, Baku sought to advance cooperation with Syria through multilateral frameworks, with particular emphasis on the energy sector. Furthermore, the article explores Azerbaijan’s emerging role as a mediator between Turkey and Israel, Syria and Israel, following al-Assad’s departure, suggesting that this shift may signal Baku’s broader ambitions to position itself as a balancing actor in the Middle East. However, these ambitions are not always crowned with success. While these developments reflect Azerbaijan’s aspiration to become an independent regional player, the analysis underscores that this role, particularly in the Syrian context, remains heavily contingent on continued Turkish support. The article also addresses the declining influence of the Armenian community in Syria and examines how Azerbaijan’s diplomatic engagement with Damascus may serve to undermine Armenia’s regional standing. Overall, the study provides a nuanced analysis of a previously understudied bilateral relationship, contextualizing it within the evolving dynamics of the conflict-affected Middle East.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.