Оценка устойчивости региональной интеграции в условиях пандемии COVID-19

Пандемия COVID-19 привела к нарушению традиционных торговых связей, кардинально изменив глобальную торговую среду. В условиях новых вызовов автор статьи предлагает концепцию устойчивости региональной интеграции, определяемую как способность интеграционного объединения сгладить негативное воздействие пандемии на внутрирегиональную торговлю и ограничить масштабы её краткосрочного сокращения. Учитывая укрепление цепочек поставок и более высокую экономическую взаимосвязь между интегрирующимися экономиками, автор исходит из того, что региональная экономическая интеграция может способствовать смягчению негативных последствий пандемии COVID-19. Для проверки выдвинутой гипотезы была использована расширенная гравитационная модель внешней торговли, применённая к анализу квартальных данных двусторонней торговли с января 2018 г. по декабрь 2021 г. Результаты расчётов свидетельствуют о том, что пандемия оказала значимое негативное влияние на двустороннюю торговлю. В то же время, несмотря на ожидаемое положительное влияние региональной интеграции на внутрирегиональную торговлю, данная гипотеза не подтвердилась. Расчёты показали, что региональная интеграция в целом не способствует смягчению негативных последствий пандемии и повышению устойчивости торговли в рамках региональных торговых объединений. Тем не менее влияние региональной торговой интеграции может различаться в зависимости от интеграционных блоков. Два из шести интеграционных блоков оказали существенное положительное влияние на торговлю во время пандемии – Европейский Союз и Соглашение США–Мексика–Канада (бывшая Североамериканская зона свободной торговли).

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