The Soviet Threat Factor in US Policy Towards Iran during the 1978–1981 Crisis

The 1978–1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran and the subsequent crisis of US–Iranian relations significantly impacted the US standing in the Middle East and damaged Washington’s reputation in the Third World. The American leadership tended to blame, if not the entire situation, at least the “hand of Moscow” for its escalation. Anti-Soviet propaganda in the American media and the alarmist attitude of the US political leadership became even more pronounced after the Soviet troops entered Afghanistan at the end of December 1979. These circumstances contributed to a renewed round of bipolar confrontation and revived cliches about the “inevitability of the Soviet threat” and “natural expansionism of Russians.” Meanwhile, the Soviet leadership was interested in encouraging the Iranian authorities to pursue their anti-American course, yet it had no aggressive aspirations towards Iran. Moscow was wary of a US invasion of Iran and the proliferation of American armed forces in the Persian Gulf. Based on documents from the Russian State Archive of Modern History (RGANI), as well as available published and digitized sources from US government and intelligence agencies, the article shows that the perception of the USSR as a “threat” became an important element of the Carter administration's policy. The article substantiates the following conclusions: 1) the plans developed during the acute phase of the crisis period to repel a potential Soviet invasion of Iran extended far beyond the regional confrontation; 2) the leading role in developing the conceptual framework for crystallizing the “Soviet threat” and preparing responses belonged to Zb. Brzezinski, Presidential Adviser on National Security, who introduced the idea of horizontal (“geographical”) escalation in September 1980; 3) the US overestimated the “Soviet threat” to the detriment of Islamic fundamentalism. The political potential of the Khomeini regime, the ideological integrity, self-sufficiency and civilizational ambition of radical Islam were not adequately evaluated at this stage.

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