Lorenz Butterfly and Uprising Supranationality Spiral

Traditional negative connotation of the term “crisis” narrows down scholarly perspective with a relatively rigid framework, which tends to overlook the constructive effects of critical development points. The use of synergetic methodology to deconstruct and redefine the term “crisis” to include ambivalent as well as positive effects into the whole picture may serve as one of the possible ways to address and partly remedy this problem. Such methodology is focused on the self-regulation and self-organization of complex systems. It draws on the observation that processes in various unrelated fields could follow the same logical structure. This article is aimed at applying synergetics to the analysis of two integration shocks: refugee crisis of the Schengen area and sovereign debt crisis of the Eurozone. It presents comparative analysis of the EU’s responses to crises and gives ground for the following set of conclusions. European integration process develops along “the uprising supranationality spiral”. The movement up and down along the spiral is possible due to the thermostat effect. This effect explains both why the EU's pro-integration response to crises may go beyond reactive measures and why rapid and intensive authority delegation in its turn spurs popularity of Eurosceptic forces. Fluctuations along the supranationality spiral go in line with the EU’s essential raison d'être: they ensure the maintenance of the system's homeostasis with a set of definite parameters of order. The EU represents a system in the Making between the phases of development and maturity. Considering the cycling of the political materia's states of aggregate, this position provides theoretical ground to talk about the midterm future of the European integration from the standpoint of evolutionary optimism.

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