Scenarios of Russia's Future in American Experts’ Assessments
https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2015.13.3.42.7
Abstract
Twenty-five years after the end of the “Cold War” the future world order remains the main topic of expert debate in International Relations. Though, the concept of a polycentric world order is supported by multiple states, the United States and its NATO allies adhere to a unipolar vision of the world. Therefore, they attempt to consolidate their privileged position in international politics. Their activities have brought about rather vivid and controversial results: various countries, which were affected by American interventions are in disarray. They have lost all opportunity to become active participants in regional affairs to say nothing about world politics. Their future development is programmed by the U.S. and its European partners. Russia remains in the focus of American policy as it strives to sustain its Great Power status and attempts to establish a regulated and stable system of interstate relations around its borders. One of the key issues in this regard is security. American policy in some Post-Soviet countries caused political, social and economic instability and even crises. The growth of the military activity of the United States and NATO is accompanied by publications of American ‘think tanks’ and experts who are eager to justify the unilateralist policies of the West. They even envision scenarios in which the world is depicted without active and potent Russia. The author analyzes some of these scenarios and tries to explain why they are suggested and actively promoted. It also seeks to formulate an alternative agenda for Russian foreign policy, which could reverse the current confrontational trend in international politics.
About the Author
Vassily ShakleinRussian Federation
Dr Vassily Shaklein – Research Fellow, the Institute of US and Canada Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, 123995
References
1. Abelson D.E. (2006). A Capitol Idea. Think Tanks and US Foreign Policy. Montreal & Kingston: McGill Queen’s University Press. 367 p.
2. Allison R. (2013). Russia, the West & Military Intervention. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 308 p.
3. Bacevich A.J. (2005). The New American Militarism. How Americans Are Seduced by War. N.Y.-Oxford: Oxford University Press. 270 p.
4. Baсevich A.J. (2009). The Limits of Power. The End of American Exceptionalism. N.Y.: Metropolitan Books. 213 p.
5. Baсevich A.J. (2010). The Washington Rules. N.Y.: Metropolitan Books. 236 p.
6. Batalov E.Ya. (2005). Mirovoe razvitie i mirovoj poryadok [Global Development and Global Order]. Moscow: ROSSPEN. 376 p.
7. Batalov E.Ya. (2009). Russkaya idya i Americanskaya mechta [Russian Idea and American Dream]. Moscow: Progress-Traditisya. 384 p.
8. Batalov E.Ya., Zhuravleva V.Yu., Khozinskaya K.V. (2009). “Rychaschij Medved’” na “dikom Vostoke” [‘Growling Bear’ in the ‘Wild East’]. Moscow: ROSSPEN. 384 p.
9. Friedman G. (2009). The Next 100 Years. A Forecast for the 21st Century. N.Y.: Anchor Books. 253 p.
10. Gordon G.N., Falk I., Hodapp W. (1963). The Idea Invaders. N.Y.: Hastings House, Publishers. 256 p.
11. Halperin M.H., Clapp P.A. (2006). Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution. 400 p.
12. Istomin I.A. (2015). Vneshnepoliticheskaya ekspertiza v SSHA [Foreign Policy Expertise in the USA]. Sravnitel’naya Politika. No. 1. P. 111-127
13. Khanna P. (2009). The Second World. How Emerging Powers Are Redefining Global Competition in the Twenty-First Century. N.Y.: Random House. 466 p.
14. Kuchins A. (2007). Alternative Futures for Russia to 2017. A Report of the Russia and Eurasia Program.
15. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Washington, D.C.: CSIS. 60 p.
16. Kuchins A. (ed) (2002). Russia after the Fall. Washington, D.C.: CEIP. 324 p.
17. Legvold R. (ed.) (2007). Russian Foreign Policy in the 21st Century & the Shadow of the Past. N.Y.: Columbia University Press. 534 p.
18. Mandelbaum M. (ed.) (1998). The New Russian Foreign Policy. N.Y.: A Council on Foreign Relations. 342 p.
19. Moyo D. (2011). How the West Was Lost. Fifty Years of Economic Folly and the Stark Choices Ahead. N.Y.: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 226 p.
20. Nadkarni V., Noonan N.C. (eds.) (2013). Emerging Powers in a Comparative Perspective. The Political and Economic Rise of the BRIC Countries. N.Y.: Bloomsbury. 241 p.
21. Nau H.R., Ollapally D.M. (eds.) (2012). Worldviews of Aspiring Powers. Domestic Foreign Policy Debates in China, India, Iran, Japan, and Russia. Oxford: Oxford University Press. 242 p.
22. Schlesinger Jr. A.M. (1974). The Imperial Presidency. N.Y.: Popular Library, 1974. 541 p.
23. Shakleina T.A. (2012). Rossiya i SSHA v mirovoj politike [Russia and the USA in World Politics]. Moscow: Aspekt Press. 272 p.
24. Shakleina T.A. (ed.) (2014). Amerika v fokuse rossijskikh issledovatelej. Istoriya i sovremennost’ [America in the Focus of Russian Scholars. History and Current Issues]. Moscow: MGIMO University. 416 p.
25. Shakleina T.A. (ed.) (2014). Vvedenie v prikladnoj analiz mehdunarodnykh situatsij [Fundamentals of the Applied Analysis of International Issues]. Moscow: Aspekt Press. 287 p.
26. Shejdina I.L. (1973). SSHA: “fabriki mysli” na sluzhbe strategii [USA: Think Tanks’ Contribution to the Strategy]. Moscow: Nauka. 192 p.
27. Shiller G. (1980). Manipulyatory soznaniem [Manipulators of Consciousness]. Moscow: Mysl’. 326 p.
28. Smirnov A.I., Kokhtyulina I.N. (2012). Global’naya bezopasnost’ i “myagkaya sila 2.0”: vyzovy i vozmozhnosti dlya Rossii [Global Security and “Soft Power 2.0”: Challenges and Opportunities for Russia]. Moscow: NIIGlob. 251 p.
29. Smirnov A.I. (ed.) (2014). Global’naya bezopasnost’ v tsifrovuyu epokhu. Stratagemy dlya Rossii [Global Security in the Digital Age. Stratagems for Russia]. Moscow: VNIIGeosistem. 392 p.
30. Stent A.E. (2015). The Limits of Partnership. U.S. – Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 394 p.
31. Yergin D., Gustafson T. (1995). Rossiya dvadtsat’ let spustya. Chetyre stsenariya [Russia in Twenty Years. Four Scenarious]. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya, 288 p.
32. Zamoshkin Yu.A., Batalov E.Ya. (eds). (1980). Sovremennoe politicheskoe soznanie v SSHA [Current Political Thinking in the USA]. Moscow: Nauka. 446 p.
Review
For citations:
Shaklein V. Scenarios of Russia's Future in American Experts’ Assessments. International Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. 2015;13(3):108-120. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2015.13.3.42.7