CLIMATE AND LAW. HOW TO FORMULATE AN ATTRACTIVE IMAGE OF A FAIR “GREEN FUTURE”

Abstract

The article examines the legal and political aspects of the concept of a “green future” for humanity, which should guide the international climate protection regime. The first part of the article systematizes the conclusions made by the International Court of Justice in its 2025 advisory opinion on the international legal climate obligations of states. The second part, based on an analysis of decisions under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, reveals the current status of the international legal climate protection regime. It concludes that over the past five years, the global climate protection regime has been reformed according to a “green energy revolution” scenario, which implies an accelerated transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. As a result of this reform, the thesis of the climate unacceptability of all types of fossil fuels has been established at the global intergovernmental level, a position confirmed by the International Court of Justice. The Court’s opinion reflects an emerging presumption of illegality regarding activities related to the financing, exploration, development, and consumption of hydrocarbon resources. The third part of the article proposes a model for a comprehensive integrated assessment of the sustainability and security of the “green transition,” within which the risks and challenges of the “green energy revolution” scenario are analyzed, and possible alternative scenarios are explored.