Criminal Insurgencies as a Form of Non-Classical Armed Conflicts: Mechanisms of Network Expansion

The influence of highly developed criminal organizations, such as gangs and cartels, has expanded dramatically, enabling these entities to exercise forceful territorial control and supplant state authority in affected regions. This phenomenon poses a fundamental threat to state security, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean, where it transcends traditional organized crime. As criminal groups achieve sufficient organizational capacity, resources, and personnel, they evolve into criminal insurgents. This paper conceptualizes criminal insurgencies as a form of non-classical military conflict meeting the criteria for internal armed conflicts. Such insurgencies may proliferate through transnational criminal networks. This study aims to demonstrate, via a case study of a specific transnational criminal network, how the integration of criminal organizations into these networks facilitates the expansion or intensification of criminal insurgencies. Criminal organizations operating in states without pre-existing emergencies, but with conducive conditions can initiate insurgencies through integration into transnational criminal networks. This is attributed to faster evolution of criminal groups by exchanging information, organizational innovations, resources and by providing access to global illegal markets. Conditions for insurgencies emerge even in regions previously unaffected. Using social network analysis, this study maps a transnational criminal network comprising 27 gangs and cartels across six countries. The network’s topology is examined, identifying two subnetworks and the pivotal role of connector nodes. Findings indicate that participation in transnational criminal networks amplifies the spread and intensity of criminal insurgencies, which, as non-classical military conflicts, inflict damage on states and societies comparable to traditional military conflicts. The corruption factor in a number of Latin American and Caribbean countries and the connection of their governments with criminal organizations is shown. The commercial nature of these insurgencies, driven by non-state actors with criminal and economic incentives, underscores their destabilizing potential. Ultimately, the study argues that the foundation of criminal insurgencies lies in the evolutionary dynamics of criminal organizations, with transnational network participation serving as a critical precursor.

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