Factors behind legislative duration in the Uropean Union. Quantitative analysis

This article investigates the impact of various institutional factors on the duration of legislative process negotiations in the European Union. The empirical data consists of EU secondary law directives adopted in 19902019 (1124 directives). We use the methodology of survival analysis (Cox model). We detected that after 2004 the rules of voting in the Council (unanimity or qualified majority) do not affect the duration of the legislative process; this conclusion changes the traditional vision of the functioning of the Council. We prove that of all the EU enlargements, only that of 1995 has influenced the legislative process and slowed it down. Other EU enlargements, including one in 2004 when 10 CEE countries joined the EU, did not show a significant impact. We demonstrate that of all basic treaty reforms that have taken place since 1990 only the Amsterdam Treaty has accelerated the decisionmaking process. In addition, we conclude that the Interinstitutional Agreement of 2007 between the Council and the European Parliament had a stronger impact on the legislative process than most treaty reforms. It favoured the acceleration of decisionmaking by consolidating cooperative practices between EU institutions based on trilogues. Besides, the study confirms some previous conclusions tested on the new dataset: more active involvement of the European Parliament in the legislative process (ordinary legislative procedure), the novelty and complexity of the act slow down the decisionmaking process.

1. Bolstad J., Cross J.P. (2016). Not all Treaties are Created Equal: The Effects of Treaty Changes on Legislative Efficiency in the EU. Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 54. No. 4. P. 793–808.

2. Box-Steffensmeier J.M., Zorn C.J.W. (2001). Duration Models and Proportional Hazards in Political Science. American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 45. No. 4. P. 972–988.

3. Box-Steffensmeier J., Bradford J. (2004). Event History Modeling in Political Science. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 218 p.

4. Brandsma G.J. (2015). Co-decision after Lisbon: The Politics of Informal Trilogues in European Union Lawmaking. European Union Politics. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 300–319.

5. Brandsma G.J., Meijer A. (2020). Transparency and the efficiency of multi-actor decision-making processes: an empirical analysis of 244 decisions in the European Union. International Review of Administrative Sciences. P. 1–18.

6. Chalmers A.W. (2014). In over their heads: Public consultation, administrative capacity and legislative duration in the European Union. European Union Politics. Vol. 15. No. 4. P. 595–613.

7. Coen D., Katsaitis A. (2019). Legislative Efficiency and Political Inclusiveness: The Effect of Procedures on Interest Group Mobilization in the European Parliament. The Journal of Legislative Studies. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 278–294.

8. Cox D.R. (1972). Regression Models and Life Tables (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. Vol. 34. P. 187–220.

9. Crombez C., Hix S. (2015). Legislative activity and gridlock in the European Union. British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 45. No. 3. P. 477–499.

10. Cross J.P., Bølstad J. 2015. Openness and censorship in the European Union: An interrupted time series analysis. European Union Politics. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 216–240.

11. Drüner D., Klüver H., Mastenbroek E., Schneider G. 2018. The core or the winset? Explaining decision-making duration and policy change in the European Union. Comparative European Politics. Vol. 16. P. 271–289.

12. Enelow J., Hinich M. (1984). The Spatial Theory of Voting: An Introduction. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 238 p.

13. Golub J. (1999). In the Shadow of the Vote? Decision Making in the European Community. International Organization. Vol. 53. P. 733–764.

14. Golub J. (2006). Did the Luxembourg compromise have any consequences? In: Palayret J.-M., Wallace H. and Winand P. (eds.) Visions, Votes and Vetoes: The Empty Chair Crisis and the Luxembourg Compromise Forty Years On. Brussels: P.I.E.-Peter Lang. P. 279–300.

15. Golub J. (2007). Survival Analysis and European Union Decision-making. European Union Politics. Vol. 8. No. 2. P. 155–179.

16. Golub J. (2008). The Study of Decision-Making Speed in the European Union. Methods, Data and Theory. European Union Politics. Vol. 9. No. 1. P. 167–179.

17. Golub J., Steunenberg B. (2007). How Time Affects EU Decision-Making. European Union Politics. Vol. 8. No. 4. P. 555–566.

18. Grambsch P.M., Therneau T.M. (1994). Proportional Hazards Tests and Diagnostics Based on Weighted Residuals. Bionietrika. Vol. 81. P. 515–526.

19. Hage F., Kaeding M. (2007). Reconsidering the European Parliament’s legislative influence: Formal vs. informal procedures. Journal of European Integration. Vol. 29. No. 3. P. 341–361.

20. Hayes-Renshaw F., Wallace H. (2006). The Council of Ministers. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. 320 p.

21. Heisenberg D. (2005). The institution of ‘consensus’ in the European Union: Formal versus informal decision-making in the Council. European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 44. Issue 1. P. 65–90.

22. Haverland M., Steunenberg B., Van Waarden F. (2011). Sectors at Different Speeds: Analysing Transposition Deficits in the European Union. Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 49. No. 2. P. 265–291.

23. Hertz R., Leuffen D. (2011). Too big to run? Analysing the impact of enlargement on the speed of EU decision-making. European Union Politics. Vol. 12. No. 2. P. 193–215.

24. Hinich H.J., Munger M.C. (1997). Analytical Politics. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press. 253 p.

25. Hix S. (2005). The Political System of the European Union. Palgrave Macmillan. 490 p.

26. Hosli M., Thomson R. (2006) Who Has Power in the EU? The Commission, Council and Parliament in Legislative Decision-Making. Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 44. No. 2. P. 391–417.

27. Hurka S., Haag M. (2020). Policy complexity and legislative duration in the European Union. European Union Politics. Vol. 21. No. 1. P. 87–108.

28. Jupille J. (2004). Procedural Politics: Issues, Influence and Institutional Choice in the European Union. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 296 p.

29. Kaeding M. (2006). Determinants of transposition delay in the European Union. Journal of Public Policy. Vol. 26. P. 229–253.

30. Kaveshnikov N. (2017). Sozdanie sistemy torgovli vybrosami parnikovykh gazov ES: kto opredelil dizain? [Establishment of the EU Emission Trading System: Who Defined the Design?] Sovremennaya Evropa. No. 6. P. 58–69.

31. Kaveshnikov N. (2020). Evolyutsiya protsedur prinyatiya reshenij v ES kak parametr glubiny integratsii [The Evolution of Decision-Making Procedures in the EU as a Parameter of the Depth of Integration]. Sovremennaya Evropa. No. 5. Р. 77–88.

32. Kaveshnikov N. (2021a). Analiz vliyaniya Evropejskogo parlamenta i Soveta ES na primere reform Sistemy torgovli parnikovymi gazami [Analysis of the Influence of the European Parliament and the Council of the EU Exemplified by the EU Emissions Trading System Reform]. Mirovaya ekonomika I mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya. Vol. 65. No. 6. P. 21–32.

33. Kaveshnikov N. (2021b). Obychnaya zakonodatel'naya procedura v ES kak primer kooperativnyh praktik. [The Ordinary Legislative Procedure in the EU as an Example of Cooperative Practices]. Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta. Vol. 14. No. 1. P. 126–147.

34. Klüver H., Sagarzazu I. (2013). Ideological congruency and decision-making speed: The effect of partisanship across European Union institutions. European Union Politics. Vol. 14. No. 3. P. 388–407.

35. König T. (2007). Divergence or convergence? From ever-growing to ever-slowing European legislative decision making. European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 46. P. 417–444.

36. Kovats L. (2009). Do Elections Set the Pace? A Quantitative Assessment of the Timing of European Legislation. Journal of European Public Policy. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 239–255.

37. Lenaerts K., Nuffel P. van (2005) Constitutional Law of the European Union. 2nd ed. London: Sweet and Maxwell. 971 p.

38. Moravcsik A. (1998). The Choice for Europe: Social Purpose and State Power from Messina to Maastricht. London, Ithaca: UCL Press, Cornell University Press. 514 p.

39. Morgan S.L., Winship C. (2007). Counterfactuals and Causal Inference: Methods and Principles for Social Research. New York: Cambridge University Press. 328 р.

40. Pollack M.A. (1997). Delegation, Agency and Agenda Setting in the European Community. International Organisations. Vol. 51. No. 1. P. 99–134.

41. Rasmussen A. (2012). Twenty Years of Co-decision since Maastricht: Inter- and Intrainstitutional Implications. European Integration. Vol. 34. No. 7. P. 735–751.

42. Rasmussen A., Toshkov D. (2011). The inter-institutional division of power and time allocation in the European Parliament. West European Politics. Vol. 34. No. 1. P. 71–96.

43. Rasmussen A., Toshkov D. (2013). The effect of stakeholder involvement on legislative duration: Consultation of external actors and legislative duration in the European Union. European Union Politics. Vol. 14. P. 366–387.

44. Roederer-Rynning C. (2019). Passage to bicameralism: Lisbon’s ordinary legislative procedure at ten. Comparative European Politics. Vol. 17. P. 957–973.

45. Rumyantsev P.O., Saenko V.A., Rumyantseva U.V., Chekin S.Yu. (2009). Statisticheskie metody analiza v klinicheskoj praktike Chast' II. Analiz vyzhivaemosti i mnogomernaya statistika. [Statistical Methods for the Analyses in Clinical Practice. Part 2. Survival Analysis and Multivariate Statistics]. Problem of Endocrinology. No. 6. P. 48–56.

46. Schneider G., Cederman L.-E. (1994). The Change of Tide in Political Cooperation: A Limited Information Model of European Integration. International Organisations. Vol. 48. No. 4. P. 633–662.

47. Schulz H., König T. (2000). Institutional Reform and Decision-Making Efficiency in the European Union. American Journal of Political Science. Vol. 44. No. 4. P. 653–666.

48. Steunenberg B. (1994). Decision making under different institutional arrangements: legislation by the European Community. Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics. Vol. 150. No. 4. P. 642–669.

49. Steunenberg B., Rhinard M. (2010). The transposition of European law in EU member states: Between process and politics. European Political Science Review. Vol. 2. P. 495–520.

50. Strezhneva M.V. (2011). Mnogourovnevoe finansovoe upravlenie na prostranstve Evropeiskogo soyuza [Multilevel Financial Governance in the European Union]. Vestnik Moskovskogo Universiteta, Seriya 25. No. 4. P. 106–125.

51. Thomson R. (2009). Actor alignments in the European Union before and after enlargement. European Journal of Political Research. Vol. 48. No. 6. P. 756–781.

52. Thomson R. and Hosli M. (2006). Who Has Power in the EU? The Commission, Council and Parliament in Legislative Decision-making. Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 44. No. 2. P. 391–417.

53. Thomson R., Arregui J., Leuffen D., Costello R., Cross J., Hertz R. and Jensen T. (2012). A new dataset on decision-making in the European Union before and after the 2004 and 2007 enlargements (DEUII). Journal of European Public Policy. Vol. 19. No. 4. P. 604–622.

54. Toshkov D. (2008). Embracing European law: Compliance with EU directives in Central and Eastern Europe. European Union Politics. Vol. 9. P. 379–402.

55. Toshkov D. (2017). The impact of the Eastern enlargement on the decision-making capacity of the European Union. Journal of European Public Policy. Vol. 24. No. 2. P. 177–196.

56. Tsebelis G. (1994). The Power of the European Parliament as a Conditional Agenda-Setter. American Political Science Review. Vol. 88. No. 1. P. 128–142.

57. Tsebelis G., Garrett G. (1997). Agenda setting, vetoes and the European Union's co-decision procedure. The Journal of Legislative Studies. Vol. 3. P. 74–92.

58. Tsebelis G. (2002). Veto players: How political institutions work. New York: Sage. 317 p.

59. Tsebelis G., Garrett G. (2000). Legislative politics in the European Union. European Union Politics. Vol. 1. P. 9–36.

60. Tsebelis G., Jensen C.B. Kalandrakis A., Kreppel A. (2001). Legislative procedures in in the European Union: An empirical analysis. British Journal of Political Science. Vol. 31. No. 4. P. 573–599.

61. Zorn Ch. (2000). Modeling Duration Dependence. Political Analysis. Vol. 8. P. 367–380.

62. Zorn Ch. (2007). Temporal Change and the Process of European Union Decision-Making. European Union Politics. Vol. 8. No. 4. P. 567–576.