Turning point in global development. Will the West keep its predominant influence on world order in the 21st century?
https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2022.20.4.71.2
Abstract
2022 could be characterized as crucial for the formation of world order and future world development. Very often we hear that the most important events of 2022 are “the Ukrainian crisis” and XX Convention of the Communist Party of China that declared the beginning of the new period in the Chinese international strategy aimed at reaching global status and influence either equal to American or even greater. Idea of the new bipolar world order has been mentioned, and even acknowledged by certain American and Russian scholars. However, there is no great optimism about such a prospect. It is only a supposition, and a rather unrealistic one. Russia is not interested in this kind of world order. It is also not quite correct to examine everything that is going on in the world in the context of the “Ukrainian crisis”, which is the product of the Western/American policy of social engineering in various countries aimed at their transformation on the basis of Western values. Such policy begun in 1992 has been part of the American global strategy to establish liberal world order with the domineering role of the United States. We suggest taking a new look at international relations. By 2022, the megatrend of the world order formation of the 21st century had entered its decisive phase. The crucial factor that will influence the outcome of this process is developing confrontation between Russia and the West/US/NATO. The result will determine whether we shall live either in a just polycentric world order, or in imperial-hegemonic order (possibly, US-China order). Russia is in a very unfavorable international situation; however, it must continue its efforts in world order formation putting efforts into propaganda of peace and necessity of establishing new institutions not Western-centered reflecting and satisfying interests of the majority of the world community.
References
1. Bacevich A. J. (2010). Washington Rules. America’s Path to Permanent War. N.Y.: Metropolitan Books. 223 p.
2. Bacevich A.J. (2018). Twilight of the American Century. Notre Dame (Ind.): University of Notre Dame Press. 492 p.
3. Batalov Ed. (2003). Amerika: strasti po imperii [America: Passions regarding Empire]. Svobodnaya mysl – XXI. No. 12. P. 9–28.
4. Batalov Ed. (2005). Novaya epokha – novyj mir [New era – New World]. Svobodnaya mysl. No. 1. P. 4–13.
5. Batalov Ed. (2005). Mirovoye razvitiye i mirovoy poriadok [World Development and World Order]. Moscow: ROSSPEN. 376 p.
6. Batalov Ed. (2008). Chelovek, mir, politika [Human, world, politics]. Moscow: Nauchno-obrazovatelniy forum. 330 p.
7. Batalov Ed. (2014). Amerikanskaya politicheskaya mysl ХХ veka [American Political Thought of the 20th Century]. Moscow: Progress-Traditsia. 616 p.
8. Brooks S.G., Wohlforth W.C. (2016). America Abroad. The United States’ Global Role in the 21st Century. N.Y.: Oxford University Press. 174 p.
9. Brzezinski Zb. (1989). The Grand Failure: the Birth and Death of Communism in the Twentieth Century. N.Y.: Scribner. 278 p.
10. Brzezinski Zb. (1995). A Plan for Europe. Foreign Affairs. Vol. 74. No. 1. P. 26–42.
11. Brzezinski Zb. (1998). In Quest of National Security. Boulder (Colo.): Westview Press. 380 p.
12. Brzezinski Zb. (1998). The Grand Chessboard. American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. N. Y.: The Basic Books. 305 p.
13. Christopher W. (1995). America’s Leadership, America’s Opportunity. Foreign Policy. No. 98. P. 6–28.
14. Deneen P.J. (2018). Why Liberalism Failed. New Haven: Yale University Press. 225 p.
15. Dole R. (1995). Shaping American Global Future. Foreign Policy. No. 98. P. 29–43.
16. Drezner D.W. (2017). The Ideas Industry. How Pessimists, Partisans, and Plutocrats are Transforming the Marketplace of Ideas. N.Y: Oxford University Press. 344 p.
17. Encarnacion O. (2005). The Follies of Democratic Imperialism. World Policy Journal. Vol. XXII. No. 1. P. 47–60.
18. Friedman G. (2010). The Next 100 years. A Forecast for the 21st Century. N.Y: Anchor Books. 253 p.
19. Gadzhiev K.S. Demokraticheskoe i imperskoe nachala vo vneshnepoliticheskoj strategii SSHA [Democratic and Imperial Foundations of the US Foreign Policy Strategy]. Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdu narodnye otnosheniya. No. 8. P. 31–41.
20. Garnett Sh. (1997). Russia’s Illusory Ambitions. Foreign Affairs. Vol. 76. No. 2. P. 61–76.
21. Haass R.N. (1997). The Reluctant Sheriff. The United States after the Cold War. N.Y.: Council on Foreign Relations. 148 p.
22. Halberstam D. (1979). Powers That Be. N.Y.: A Dell Book. 1079 p.
23. Hitt W.D. (1996). A Global Ethic: the Leadership Challenge. Columbia (OH): Battelle Press. 182 p.
24. Huntington S.P. (1999). The Lonely Superpower. Foreign Affairs. Vol. 78. No. 2. P. 35–49.
25. Ikenberry J.G. (1999). America’s Liberal Hegemony. Current History. Vol. 98. No. 624. P. 23–34.
26. Jervis R., Bialer S. (eds) (1991). SovietAmerican Relations After the Cold War. Durham-London: Duke University Press. 363 p.
27. Jones B. (2014). Still Ours to Lead. America, Rising Powers, and the Tension Between Rivalry and Restraint. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution Press. 275 p.
28. Kagan R. (1998). The Benevolent Empire. Foreign Policy. No. 111. P. 24–35.
29. Khalilzad Z., Lesser I.O. (eds) (1998). Sources of Conflict in the 21st Century. Regional Futures and U.S. Strategy. Santa Monica (Cal.): RAND. 336 p.
30. Khanna P. (2009). The Second World. How Emerging Powers Are Redefining Global Competition in the TwentyFirst Сentury. N.Y.: Random House. 496 p.
31. Layne Ch. (2006). The Peace of Illusions. American Grand Strategy from 1940 to the Present. Ithaca: Cornell University Press. 304 p.
32. Levin M.R. (2019). Unfreedom of the Press. N.Y.: Threshold Editions. 258 p.
33. Lieber R. (2016). Retreat and Its Consequences: American Foreign Policy and the Problem of World Order. N.Y.: Cambridge University Press. 142 p.
34. Lieven A. (2012). America Right or Wrong. An Anatomy of American Nationalism. 2nd ed. London: Oxford University Press. 308 p.
35. Mandelbaum M. (2005). The Case for Goliath. How America Acts as the World’s Government in the 21st Century. N.Y.: PublicAffairs. 274 p.
36. Mandelbaum M. (2010). The Frugal Superpower. America’s Global Leadership in a CashStrapped Era. N.Y.: PublicAffairs. 213 p.
37. Mandelbaum M. (2014). The Road to Global Prosperity. N.Y.: Simon & Schuster. 245 p.
38. Mann J. (2012). The Obamians. The Struggle Inside the White House to Redefine American Power. N.Y.: Penguin Books. 392 p.
39. Maynes Ch.W. (1998). The Perils of (and for) an Imperial America. Foreign Policy. No. 111. P. 36–48.
40. Mearsheimer J.J. (2018). The Great Delusion. Liberal Dreams and International Realities. New Haven: Yale University Press. 313 p.
41. Mintz M., Cohen J.S. (1977). Power, Inc. Public and Private Rulers and How to Make Them Accountable. N.Y.: A Bantam Book. 831 p.
42. Mоyо D. (2011). How the West Was Lost. Fifty Years of Economic Folly and the Stark Choices Ahead. N.Y.: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 226 p.
43. Parrott B. (ed.) (1995). State Building and Military Power in Russia and the New States of Eurasia. Armonk (N.Y.) – London (England): M.E. Sharpe. 319 p.
44. Paul T.V. (ed.) (2016). Accommodating Rising Powers. Past, Present, and Future. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 335 p.
45. Ra’anan U., Martin K. (eds) (1995). Russia. A Return to Imperialism? N.Y.: S. Martin’s Press. 304 p.
46. Reich S., Lebow N.R. (2014). GoodBye Hegemony! Power and Influence in the Global System. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 208 p.
47. Rieff D. (2000). The Crusaders. Moral Principles, Strategic Interests, and Military Force. World Policy Journal. Vol. XV. No. 2. P. 39–47.
48. Rivers W.L. (1967). The Opinion Makers. The Washington Press Corps. Boston: Beacon Press. 207 p.
49. Schiller H. (1980). Manipuliatori Soznaniyem [Manipulators of Consciousness]. Moscow: Mysl. 326 p.
50. Schlesinger A. M., Jr. (1974). The Imperial Presidency. N.Y.: Popular Library. 541 p.
51. Shakleina T.A. (2002). Rossiya i SSHA v novom mirovom poryadke. Diskussii v politikoakademicheskikh soobschestvakh Rossii i SSHA. 1992–2002 [Russia and the US in the New World Order. Discussion in the Political and Academic Communities of Russia and the US. 1992–2002]. Moscow: ISK RAN. 445 p.
52. Shakleina T.A. (2008). “Poryadok posle Gruzii” ili “poryadok pri Obame” [“Order after Georgia” or “Order under Obama”]. Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. Vol. 6. No. 3. P. 4–14.
53. Shakleina T.A. (2019). “Dilemma Ameriki” v formirovanii sovremennogo mirovogo poryadka. Rezultaty dejstivj SSHA i formirovanie “evrazijskogo tsentra” [“American Dilemma” in the Formation of Current World Order. Results of the US Actions and Emergence of the “Eurasian Center”]. Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. Vol. 17. No. 4. P. 36–48.
54. Shakleina T.A. (2021). Novyj etap v formirovanii mirovogo poryadka [New Stage in the Formation of the World Order]. Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. Vol. 19. No. 3. P. 6–21.
55. Shakleina T.A. (2022). Rossiya i SSHA v Sovremennykh Mezhdunarodnykh Otnosheniyakh [Russia and the US in the Current International Relations]. Moscow: Aspekt Press. 448 p.
56. Shakleina T.A. (ed.) (2005). Problemy Liderstva vo Vneshnepoliticheskoj Deyatel’nosti SSHA. Itogi Pervogo Sroka Administratsii Busha [Challenged of Leadership in the US Foreign Policy Activity. Results of the First Term of the Bush Administration]. Moscow: ISK RAN. 141 p.
57. Singer D.J. (1990). Models, Methods, and Progress in World Politics. A Peace Research Odyssey. Boulder: Westview Press. 314 p.
58. Snow D.M. (1991). The Shape of the Future: The PostCold War World. Armonk (N.Y.): M.E. Sharpe. 235 p.
59. Vinogradov A.V. (2021). Kitajskij proekt dlya Bol’shoj Evrazii [Chinese Project for the Greater Eurasia]. Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. Vol. 19. No. 2. P. 6–20.
60. Voskressenskii A.D. (ed.) (2019). Model’ razvitiya sovremennogo Kitaya: otsenki, diskussii, prognozy [Development Model of the Modern China: Assessments, Discussions and Forecasts]. Moscow: Strategicheskie izyskaniya. 735 p.
61. Wohlforth W.C. (1999). The Stability of a Unipolar World. International Security. Vol. 24. No. 1. P. 5–41.
62. Wright Q. (1935). The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace. L.: Longmans. 148 p.
63. Yergin D., Gustafson Th. (1995). Rossia dvadtsat let spustiya. Chetire stsenariya [Russia Twenty Years After. Four Scenarios]. Moscow: Mezhdunarodniye otnoshenia. 286 p.
Review
For citations:
Shakleina T. Turning point in global development. Will the West keep its predominant influence on world order in the 21st century? International Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. 2022;20(4):6-22. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2022.20.4.71.2