Southeast Asia between the US, China, And Russia: in Search for an Eluding Balance

Southeast Asia has a unique history of interaction with great powers. As a result, the countries of the region have developed a wide range of foreign policy instruments and generated different types of foreign policy behavior, including balancing and bandwagoning. All the while, the rising complexity of global and regional processes, multifaceted confrontation between the USA, Europe and Russia, as well as between the USA and China and the regional projections thereof demand a revision of balancing, inherent in ASEAN and its member states’ policies. This new international situation raises questions about new types of foreign policy strategy of small and middle range countries. The existing research defines them as hedging, which implies various policy actions undertaken to avoid or limit the risk of negative scenarios. Southeast Asian states started to develop their hedging strategies in response to the strategic uncertainty caused by China’s rapid rise. Hence, the focus was primarily on avoiding collateral damage emanating from US-China relations. Yet the meltdown of the European security architecture has redefined the US-China-Russia triangle and its influence on Southeast Asia. A newer version of this triangle differs from its Cold war predecessor and complicates hedging implementation as it provokes a greater divergence of regional and national reactions to the ongoing crisis. Methodologically, the article proves it by analyzing the phenomenon of hedging in the Southeast Asian context, by looking at the European security architecture crisis’ implications for the region and by comparing regional and national reactions to the rising confrontation in the USA-China-Russia triangle.

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