American Political Class on the Fortunes of the New START Treaty

The article analyses the discussion in the United States regarding the problem of extending the New START Treaty in 2021. In the context of the activities of D. Trump administration, which has embarked upon the path of revising the U.S. foreign policy strategy and, accordingly, on the abrogation of nonproliferation and arms control treaties, the authors examine attitudes of the most influential interest groups within the American foreign policy establishment (progressives, neoliberals, conservative democrats, realists and conservatives) towards the New START agreement. Among these five groups, only the conservatives are aggressively opposed to the extension of the treaty. They consider it extremely harmful to the U.S. interests due to Russia's inability to conform to international treaties and to numerous built-in defects that were developed by the Obama administration as part of the “reset” process. All of the three groups of democrats agree that the New START should be preserved, since it serves the US interests. After February 2020 it will allow for a dialogue with the Russian Federation regarding strategic arms control, including comprehensive and multilateral aspects. Democrats accuse the Republicans – from Bush Jr. to Trump – of strategic destabilization and consider the 2010 "the New START in exchange for nuclear triad modernization" deal still valid. The article also shows that the realists of the Republican party are leaning towards a compromise. They endorse the prolongation of the New START after February 2021 on the condition of annual assessments of Russia’s activity regarding a “comprehensive and multilateral” treaty modernization. Nevertheless, if the agreement has to be suspended as a result of unconstructive behavior of the Russian Federation, no arms race is expected since the both sides will be forced to voluntarily provide a safe “self-control regime”. The authors conclude that the compromise option will be chosen as, first, it is supported by the House of Representatives, and second, it can be helpful for President Trump in the upcoming elections. Otherwise his Democratic opponents will get the opportunity to accuse him of the collapse of the global strategic security system.

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