Theories of International Relations and Prospects of a Military Alliance Between Russia and China

The article seeks to explain why there is no formal military­political alliance between the two. The conclusion of one would be logical taking into consideration expanded cooperation including military dimension which puts both countries on the verge of an alliance as well as exacerbating tensions and strategic rivalry with the U.S. By employing International Relations theory, the author highlights the balance between benefits and costs which is not conducive to the creation of a formal bloc, a number of unit­level factors inhibiting it, coexisting convergent and divergent interests, asymmetry of both capabilities and dependency in bilateral relations. As a result of analyzing the key characteristics of strategic partnership, the article demonstrates that Russia­-China relations conform to the notion of alignment structured around the system­level goal of promoting multipolar or polycentric world order and a set of common principles. A new stage in Russia­China relations since 2014 is characterized by closer political, security and economic cooperation. Against the background of strategic competition with the U.S., Russia and China have intensified military cooperation encompassing strategic sphere as well. Whereas global interests of the two states are much alike, the regional ones frequently overlap or diverge. As a result, both states take no interest in entrapment in each other’s conflicts as despite the downgrade of relations with the West it remains an important partner for both Russia and China. It is instructive that Moscow and Beijing balance Washington mostly individually, and they are deemed quite capable by their leadership to conduct military action under most likely scenarios falling short of full­scale war. Adding to potential alliance costs is the reduction of foreign policy autonomy. Growing asymmetry of complex power and economic relations coupled with PLA’s modernization and gradual reduction of China’s dependency on Russia in military technologies and components predetermine the increasing likelihood that Russia­-China alliance would become more asymmetric in future, notwithstanding the fact that it would be fairly symmetric at first. It would it turn exacerbate the risks of Russia transforming into a subordinate player in the long­term perspective. Strategic partnership at present makes it possible for Russia and China to pursue their goals while not bearing the costs of an alliance. However, deepening strategic confrontation between the U.S. and China together with the persistent conflict in Russia-­US relations may draw Russia and China closer together.

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