MUSLIMS IN THE WESTERN BALKANS. FROM NUMBERS TO MEANINGS

The article is devoted to demographic changes in Muslim communities in the Western Balkans. The study is based on the most recent population censuses (2021–2024) conducted in all countries and territories of the region, except Bosnia and Herzegovina. According to updated data, Muslims make up one-third of the total population in the area. At the same time, the number of local Muslim communities has been steadily declining. Only North Macedonia and Montenegro have demonstrated an upward trend in the number of Muslims. The decline in the Muslim population is occurring against the backdrop of general depopulation across the Balkans. The most significant loss of the Muslim population has taken place over the past decade. Interim results suggest that existing projections of the Muslim population in the region by 2050 should be reconsidered, considering the potential social, economic, cultural, and political consequences. At present, earlier forecasts appear overly optimistic. In parallel with this process, there has also been a decrease in the size of other major religious communities in the region, particularly Christian ones. In addition to demographic trends, the study focuses on the issue of the contemporary (self-)positioning of Balkan Islam within a broader European context. The analysis clarifies the boundaries of the Islamic "renaissance" in the Western Balkans. The uncertain current status of Balkan Islam, previously considered “autochthonous” to Europe, is largely driven by changes in Europe's socio-demographic structure over the past decade, particularly as a result of migration and the subsequent integration of large numbers of Muslims from the Middle East. In light of this transformation, the study identifies the distinctive features of Balkan Islam compared to other forms of European Islam: a clear commitment to the idea of a secular state – supported by a broad social consensus across all Balkan societies; the structure of local religious communities (many of which have become relative or absolute religious majorities in their respective states); a still-living generational memory of large-scale and profound secularization; and a relatively high proportion of “sociological Muslims”—those who identify as Muslim by personal or family origin, rather than through regular religious practice.

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