Модель интеграции в Тихоокеанской Азии

На протяжении своей истории АСЕАН сталкивалась с множеством проблем, включая резкие изменения условий среды региональной безопасности, финансовый кризис конца 1990-х годов, противоречия между странами-участницами, а также последствия социально-политических трансформаций в соседних странах. Чтобы выжить, этому объединению, с одной стороны, пришлось проявлять изрядную выдержку при решении проблем внутренней неоднородности, территориальной целостности и неустойчивости политических режимов в государствах региона. С другой – АСЕАН необходимо было демонстрировать достаточный уровень новаторства, чтобы разрешать двусторонние территориальные споры и отвечать на масштабные вызовы в области региональной безопасности, располагая довольно ограниченной ресурсной базой. Успехи этой региональной группировки особенно отчетливы на фоне более чем скромных достижений Ассоциации регионального сотрудничества Южной Азии (СААРК). Автор полагает, что опыт АСЕАН может пригодиться в деятельности таких относительно успешных интеграционных блоков, как ЕС и ЕАЭС. «Путь АСЕАН» как метод организации регионального сотрудничества в ЮВА доказал свою эффективность. Его применение помогло избежать типичного для Европы конфликта между межправительственным и коммунитарным принципами, а также выявить значительный потенциал межправительственных сетей различных конфигураций в деле углубления и расширения регионального сотрудничества. Суть этого подхода заключается в «регулировании снизу», что исключает иерархическую модель принятия решений и ситуацию превосходства какой-либо одной державы. При выстраивании отношений с внешним миром АСЕАН позиционирует себя не столько в качестве наиболее важной региональной организации в Азии, сколько как реальный и действенный локомотив формирования регионального порядка, отвечающего потребностям стран Азиатско-Тихоокеанского макрорегиона в развитии торговли и экономики, обеспечении безопасности и оформлении надгосударственной идентичности. Практика выстраивания концентрических кругов из различных партнерств оказалась достаточно удачной, позволяя совмещать политическое лидерство твердого ядра (принцип «центральности» АСЕАН) с открытостью и включением на разных уровнях близких и отдалённых стран. В будущем ключевой вызов для АСЕАН будут представлять внутренняя фрагментация и, в особенности, риск раскола ввиду углубляющихся проблем безопасности в соседнем субрегионе Северо-Восточной Азии. Этот риск зачастую будет усиливаться в результате великодержавной политики таких глобальных игроков, как КНР и США.

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