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Islamic Extremism in the Lake Chad Region

https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2017.15.1.48.8

Abstract

At the present time Islamic extremist groups expand their presence in the Lake Chad basin countries. Encouragement in various forms from similar organizations all over the world might, on the one hand, give birth to new or lead to extension of existing ethnic and religious conflicts; on the other hand, result in birth of transnational panreligious entities. At the same time local ethnic, geographical, and other peculiarities of the region form the oppositely directed tendencies. As a result, new quasi or true states, defending their own interests, may appear on the political map of Africa.

The author argues that the emergence of new cells of Islamic extremist organizations such as Boko Haram most likely within the territories predominantly populated by Muslims. The lower their income level and literacy rate, the higher the probability of emergence. The geopolitical zones (states in the second stage of the study) of Nigeria, regions of Niger and Cameroon, macro-regions of Chad  were  selected  as  the territorial range. The religious affiliation data have been compiled from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) database. Income level and literacy rate were evaluated indirectly using body mass index and calculated degree of age heaping (modified Whipple's index), respectively. Hierarchical  cluster analysis, using SPSS Statistics 17.0, has allowed me to identify four groups of territorial-administrative units by the level of occurrence probability of new Islamic extremist groups.

The article clearly shows that Boko Haram has the western and north-western potential direction of its territorial development. Meanwhile, the new cells more likely to form inside Nigeria than outside. Thus in the near future the expansion of Islamic extremist organizations in the Lake Chad basin countries will occur at the local level. The effect of ethnicity factor interferes with globalization and highlights secession processes.

About the Author

Ruslan Dmitriev
Institute for African Studies of the RAS, Institute of Geography of the RAS, Lomonosov Moscow State University
Russian Federation

Dr Ruslan Dmitriev - Senior Research Fellow, Institute for African Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Lomonosov Moscow State University

123001, Moscow; 119017, Moscow; 119991, Moscow



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Review

For citations:


Dmitriev R. Islamic Extremism in the Lake Chad Region. International Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. 2017;15(1):92-107. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.17994/IT.2017.15.1.48.8

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