MILITARY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN EUROPEAN ACTORS IN SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

Recent shifts in U.S. foreign policy warrant an examination of the role of European actors in shaping a militarized dividing line in Eastern Europe, stretching from Baltic to the Black Sea. Since 2022, military-political processes in Southeastern Europe have been marked by a cautious convergence between France and Italy, which can be attributed to the Quirinal Treaty signed in 2021. However, an analysis of military buildup processes and related political dimensions reveals several significant constraints that could hamper coordination among European security providers. Among them are plans to hold to a moderate and scheduled enlargement of land forces, the composition of NATO multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria and Romania, and divergent foreign policy priorities between France and Italy in the Greater Mediterranean region. The emergence in March 2025 of the so-called coalition of the willing, spearheaded by Paris and London, is to be regarded not only as a reaction to negotiations between Moscow and Washington, but also as a declarative milestone in the militarization of the contact line. This shift signals a transfer of military-political initiative to European NATO members. It also raises questions on the development of multilateral coordination formats in relation to multinational battlegroups in Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Hungary, which were established in March 2022. At least four scenarios for the development of multilateral formats can be identified. They imply increasing the role of Spain, Turkey, Great Britain or regional states, all of which place individual emphasis in terms of operational activities, military buildup and involvement of military logistics in the region.

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