Azerbaijan-Syria Relations: Shaping the Fluctuations Gor Gevorgyan and Turning Points (1992–2025)

This article examines the evolution of Azerbaijani-Syrian relations across three distinct phases: the postSoviet period, the era of Bashar al-Assad’s rule, and the emerging dynamics in post-Assad Syria. It offers a comprehensive analysis of the bilateral relationship, focusing on its structural challenges, developmental patterns, and strategic prospects. The study argues that the outbreak of the Syrian conflict in 2011 and the subsequent deterioration in Turkish-Syrian relations indirectly shaped Syria’s cautious posture toward Azerbaijan, given Baku’s close strategic alignment with Ankara. Despite a prolonged period of stagnation spanning over a decade, no overt diplomatic rifts developed between Baku and Damascus. The recent installation of a pro-Turkish Islamist government in Syria in December 2024, combined with the retreat of Iranian and Russian influence, has opened new strategic avenues for Azerbaijan to expand its regional presence. Supported by Ankara, Baku sought to advance cooperation with Syria through multilateral frameworks, with particular emphasis on the energy sector. Furthermore, the article explores Azerbaijan’s emerging role as a mediator between Turkey and Israel, Syria and Israel, following al-Assad’s departure, suggesting that this shift may signal Baku’s broader ambitions to position itself as a balancing actor in the Middle East. However, these ambitions are not always crowned with success. While these developments reflect Azerbaijan’s aspiration to become an independent regional player, the analysis underscores that this role, particularly in the Syrian context, remains heavily contingent on continued Turkish support. The article also addresses the declining influence of the Armenian community in Syria and examines how Azerbaijan’s diplomatic engagement with Damascus may serve to undermine Armenia’s regional standing. Overall, the study provides a nuanced analysis of a previously understudied bilateral relationship, contextualizing it within the evolving dynamics of the conflict-affected Middle East.

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