REALITY AND THEORY
The article compares the national economic model of Russia with similar models of countries at a comparable level of development, as well as with the record of the most advanced countries. The national economic model is understood in it as an economic mechanism of the country, which is characterized by both common and specific aggregate indicators for countries at similar development level. At the same time, it is influenced by the country's social, political, ethical models. The paper examines the main indicators characterizing the state of the Russian national economy, identified on the basis of a study of the World Economic Forum. After that, building upon statistical data, expert assessments and specific cases from local record, the influence of the political system and the state of the Russian society on economic activity in the country is revealed. The article argues that the fundamental imbalance of the existing Russian model is the contradiction between the interests of oligarchic state capitalism and the benefit for most economic agents. In turn, this imbalance generates a number of other negative consequences: an excessive level of state intervention in the economy, its high monopolization, a weak financial sector, as well as sluggish modernization and diversification of the economy. An attempt is made to identify the prospects for the evolution of the Russian economic model by influencing the negative imbalances through the positive imbalances of the Russian economic model: namely, the high level of education of the population, the large size of the market and the relatively developed infrastructure. In the last part of the article the conclusion is made on the possibility of transforming existing system into a classical model of state capitalism, but only if there are political conditions for such a transition.
Russian migration policy for almost the entire recent history has been criticized by domestic and foreign experts. Their general argument is that Russian migration policy is extremely flawed and does not meet modern demographic, social and economic realities, as well as the prospects of national development. Despite a radical change in the social system in the 1990s, an adequate migration policy and the transformation of the institutions implementing it did not happen. The main disadvantage of the continued preservation of migration regulation institutions within the domain of law enforcement agencies is determined by ideologically incorrect premise that cross-border mobility is primarily a potential risk for the country, and migrants are potential violators of law and order. Although, there was significant modernization of the migration regime since the Soviet-era, a number of protective bastions remain, preventing the use of migration flows in order to achieve the objectives of social and economic development of the country. Among them, a strict system of registration of visitors by place of residence and the numerous barriers to obtaining Russian citizenship. As a result, a clear gap emerged between theoretical promises in official documents and practical implementation of migration regulation. The Concept of Migration Policy until 2025 contains a number of revolutionary provisions. It is clearly aimed at attracting investors and highly skilled workers. To overcome existing contradictions there is a need to link migration management with the demographic, economic and foreign policies of the country. Moreover, it is important to introduce a concept of "foreign migration policy." It refers to the ideology and mechanism of active formation of migration flows, including the use of resources from the Russian-speaking communities abroad. Such kind of foreign migration policy can only be implemented with the support of a specialized independent entity to manage migration.
The purpose of this article is to account for the relationship between expansion of areas of NGO activities and evolution of the United Nations. The theoretical novelty of this work is to identify three elements of an informal management structure of the UN and to explain the process of trans-nationalization of NGOs’activities. Empirically research is based on the results of expert’s sociological survey conducted using the method of semi-structured interviews and consultations. 38 experts including leaders and employees of NGO’s in consultative status with ECOSOC, UN staff and interns, diplomats, individuals acting at the UN in the personal capacity, and researchers had been interviewed in 2013-2015 and in 2016. The authors of the article conclude that consultative status was not only means for getting the international legal personality for NGO’s, but also created reasons for institutionalization of whole international nongovernmental sector. The United Nations at the will of its Member States took over the function of promoting development of NGO’s and provided them platforms and channels for entering the international arena.
As a result, they have consolidated into a separate class of international actors. Eventually, because of the so-called boomerang effect, discovered by M. Keck and K. Sikkink, NGO’s began to exert the opposite effect on the states, as well as on the United Nations itself. In particular they initiated enlargement of the sphere of UN interests, influenced so-called UN ideas, and gat linked up to the programs and projects in all activities. As a result, alongside "formal management triangle" of the UN, formed by Security Council, General Assembly and Secretariat, "informal management triangle" has been created. Its three tops are formed by: the first – by Member States, the second – by UN organs, and the third by NGO’s in consultative status with ECOSOC, as well as other non-state actors. This third top in spite of its institutional weakness has significant opportunities in terms of influence on UN family in particular as a channel to provide impacts on transnational players.
Policy of the Obama administration and its results require serious analysis and evaluation. As a result of its international strategy key problems of world politics became more acute and alarming. Issues of international security were on the frontline of the world policy agenda due to American and NATO actions that were far from being peaceful. Not very wise activities of the United States in Arab countries brought instability and civil discontent, growth of terrorist groups and their activities; desperate people from countries in civil wars moved to the European states, causing migration and identity crisis. By 2016 polycentric character of the world manifested itself more clearly, putting serious dilemma for the American government and demanding new strategy and tactics to deal with world order formation to preserve mechanisms of control over this trend. Relations with Russia reached its lowest point acquiring confrontational character that was disadvantageous for both sides. China started to pursue more decisive policy at the global and regional levels. Russia and China continued and broadened cooperation within Eurasian integration projects, and this interaction was viewed with disapproval and enmity in the United States that does not want rapprochement between these great powers. Presidential elections in the United States in 2016 demonstrated critical aspects in the functioning of American political system, crisis of both Republican and Democratic parties. Donald Trump, who won the elections, led his primaries independently from the Republican party elite and donors who had to acknowledge his victory and nominate him as the party candidate. Donald Trump was considered as a controversial person not very suitable for the presidential position, and debates about and around
him did not stop with the end of the elections. It is not clear what kind of international strategy he chooses, how he will deal with leading world powers, first of all, with Russia and China. The most important question is whether he will change the character of American foreign policy which was rather militant under the Obama administration. It is not a simple dilemma as there is no visible and broad political basis for dramatic shift to make American behavior in international relations more peaceful. It is not clear whether the United States is ready to come to agreement with other powers on issues of world order.
The article deals with the evolution of the air power doctrine from the point of view of its role in interstate interaction. In its broadest meaning, this concept implies a type of military strategy in which combat aviation dominates. The authors address the history of aerial device use in the military conflicts of the 19th century, look into the emergence and development of military aviation in the 20th century and analyze the changes which took place in the 21st century in world politics as well as the changes in regional conflict management that air force development was responsible for. In the historical context, the evolution of air war conduct theories is considered starting from the classical works on the air power theory that date back to WWI and WWII and finishing with the modern approaches to what future aviation will be like. One of the issues raised is the possibility to build an effective air defense system capable of neutralizing and completely destroying enemy air force. The analysis completed by the authors leads them to the conclusion that the understanding of the air power doctrine remains at the level of the 1940’s and attributes the most crucial role to strategic aviation combined with nuclear arms and high technologies. Nevertheless the nature of modern conflicts calls for the emergence of a new pool of air power doctrine-related concepts implying either the suppression of sophisticated air defense or establishing a comprehensive air defense capable of protecting a country from enemy air strikes. In addition, the development of new doctrines on the basis of improving technological capabilities allows to radically rethink the approaches to the appearance of future air forces, which may become a serious threat to countries with underdeveloped air defense systems.
ANALYTICAL PRISMS
The article examines major conflicts of the current international system through the prism of the possibilities for being managed and regulated by the international community. At the end of the 20th – beginning of the 21st centuries the US and its closest allies initiated a series of military interventions, in Kosovo, Iraq, and Afghanistan. In 2009, the Obama administration announced its move towards a more equitable world order in which military force would play a much smaller role in comparison with nonmilitary means and political settlement. Since then, the United States has been much more careful and selective in launching large-scale military operations, which has been clearly illustrated by the Libyan conflict. At the same time the US was still committed to regime change actions as a key vector of their foreign policy strategy. A new scenario of overthrowing hostile regimes with two consecutive options has been tested: first, conducting a "color revolution" from within (Egypt, Tunisia), and if necessary – move to the military phase by initiating humanitarian intervention (Libya). The two most pressing global crisis – Ukrainian and Syrian – clearly demonstrate a new trend – turn to the practice of conducting proxy wars instead of direct military interventions. The international community, especially global leading powers of the two alliances, are facing the necessity to form a convergent approach in order to settle contemporary conflicts, which for the time being have gained its proper dynamics and become more protracted.
CATCHING A TREND
By studying the process of reform of the Schengen acquis in 2011-2013 inspired by the Arab Spring and the inflow of migrants to the Mediterranean shores of the European Union, this paper seeks to demonstrate how policy entrepreneurs exploit windows of opportunity that open following an external shock (a notion is used to conceptualize the events of the Arab Spring) in order to fulfill their own preferences, regardless of the substance of the external shock in question. How could it happen that the reform initiated by Italy and France in 2011 to “re-nationalise the Schengen” would in the end turn out to be just the opposite of what they sought to achieve? The article suggests that the major factor which helps explain this is the institutional position of the European Commission which holds exclusive right of legislative initiative, and the fact that by using its position, the Commission was able to win over the European Parliament to its side by effectively making it a veto-player in negotiations with the EU Council, thus trapping the Member States into the “joint decision trap”. The research traces the reform process through all of its stages: starting with the agenda-setting by the Italian authorities who applied alarmist rhetoric trying to securitize the migrants arriving to the Italian shores, proceeding with the choice between alternative solutions proposed by different actors and policy reform initiation, multilateral negotiations between the EU Member States and the European Parliament and, concluding with the adoption of the two legislative acts. The concluding remarks put the case into the broader theoretical perspective of comparative politics.
Chinese-Mongolian relations reflect controversial nature of interaction between a strong power and its weaker neighbor. Strategies employed by each of the players in these relations, which possess dramatically different amount of military, political, economic and demographic capabilities, are illustrative as they enable maintaining balanced and neighborly relations in the context of unpredictability of mutual intentions. Despite the temptation towards greater assertiveness, China pursues a policy of engagement, based on its soft power rather than coercion. Meanwhile, Ulaanbaatar, despite its weakness on most measures, follows the path of tough defending of its independence. Its strategy is built upon using Chinese vulnerabilities in order to increase the costs of any hardline policy for its much stronger neighbor. The geography of Mongolia, which put it between two great powers (China and Russia) provides it with opportunities to maneuver between them and play them against each other. Moreover, Ulaanbaatar fosters dialogue with ethnical Mongols and other similar nationalities within PRC. It uses this leverage to increase domestic costs of potential pressure on Mongolia by Chinese authorities. They could also be multiplied due to the existing risks of separatist movements in several ethnically or religiously diverse regions of China. Finally, Beijing’s policy towards Mongolia is closely monitored by other Chinese neighbors and partners as a potential reflection of its revisionist tendencies. Therefore, in the case of China and Mongolia a combination of these two strategies enables maintenance of sustainable equilibrium between clearly unequal partners.
In the article the author discusses two main vectors of the Italian foreign policy which are: Аtlantism (as support of the US policy and so-called “atlantic solidarity”) and europeism – as an expression of loyalty of the political line of Brussels in the framework of the EU. The question raised in the article is: are these two directions mutually exclusive or complementary? The article analyzes the period of the Second Republic in Italy, the beginning of which coincided with the end of the Cold War and is connected with the political changes at the national level. These important events demonstrated the barest necessity to enhance the discourse on foreign policy strategy of the state. What is more, they established the need for the acquisition of a more significant position for Italy in the world (the role of “protagonist”). One can see these changing trends (evolution of Italian foreign policy) more clearly during the period of confrontation between governments of Silvio Berlusconi and Romano Prodi. S. Berlusconi traditionally orientated his policy towards the United States, and R. Prodi, on the contrary, was always among the politicians who were looking for the strengthening of integration within the EU. It was confirmed by foreign policy decisions adopted by Italian leaders during important international initiatives (e.g. operations in the Balkans, Iraq, the signing of the European Constitution, etc.). Nevertheless, it is impossible to say with certainty that the commitment to the particular political orientation excludes the other one. Thus, Italian foreign policy gained a kind of inherent ambiguity in the determination of the country's strategy. This was embodied in the tactics of “building bridges”. In that way Italy received the role of a “bridge” between different regions around the world.
Since the beginning of the 2000s against the background of progressive economic rise of emerging powers, including Russia, which falls under this category in the economic sense, the issue of balance of potential between the traditional leaders of development and the emerging centers of power has become very popular in academic and political circles. Having highlighted the contrast of the economic situations in these countries and the difference of their reactions to its consequences the 2008 global economic crisis contributed to further politicization of the matter. Given the complexity of the development phenomenon and its multidimensional impact on the overall potential of countries, all issues related to it, including these concerning innovations, inevitably acquire sensibility. Innovation development represents one of the key drivers of the economic growth as well as of, but does not equal it. Nevertheless, innovation development plays an important and even critical role in the increase of the country’s overall power and thus merits special consideration. The analysis of the interaction betw een the developed and the emerging powers during innovation processes reveals new interesting aspects of their current state in the sphere of the innovation development and its possible changes in the future. At present, these are global value chains that produce a considerable part of scientific and technological progress and innovations. They entangle national innovation systems of both industrialized and developing countries into a dense network of multidirectional and asymmetric linkages, which create the basis for both cooperation and competition among traditional and rising powers as well as among actors of their national innovation systems in the field of high-technologies. Meanwhile, the boundaries between competition and collaboration are far from being apparent, as the configuration of different types of interaction is determined not only and not so much by market relations and relevant innovation development strategies as by the political aspirations of countries. This factor sets new tasks before governments seeking to build up their innovation potential. Besides, in the context of the aggravation of relations with the West and restrictions imposed on transfer of needed technologies it is a matter of topical interest for Russia.
The article deals with the youth policy of advanced European states, building upon the record of France and Germany. The issue of youth policy efficiency acquired crucial importance in terms of social capital reproduction and maintenance in the EU. The state funds different kinds of programs for young people, and tries to minimize negative impact of financial and economic crises on this part of the population. Germany and France represent the most sophisticated and resource-accommodated youth policies in Europe. The article uses comparative analysis and structural and functional approach in order to address youth policy institutional basis and its efficiency in the given countries. Firstly, much attention is paid to the financing of exchange programs inside the EU as well as between France and Germany. Through the establishment of intercultural dialogue between the German and French youth, who do not have a negative historical memory in relation to each other, is fulfilled the task to bring two countries closer together. Strong state support for the development and improvement of youth policy makes clear that the German and French youth policy models are paternalistic. Secondly, the article accesses the difference between the two models. In Germany the institutions engaged in the policy implementation are more centralized, and the legislation is more developed. In France, youth policy is in the hands of the regions, but numerous institutions of public and non-governmental status in are involved the process of its implementation. Young people in France and Germany themselves are more or less active, which indicates that on the one hand, young people are beginning to take an increasingly active civic position, on the other hand, youth policy is bearing fruit. The article concludes that youth policy of France and Germany is constantly adapting to changing conditions due to its institutional design.
INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND WORLD POLITICS
The concept of Dutch disease or the effect of Groningen became known in the energy-intensive economies of countries in connection with the current trends in changes in demand for vocational education after rising energy prices. In analytical practice it was considered more energy-intensive economies of vastly different levels of economic development of countries and identified similar mating energy prices rise phenomenon services sector growth and reduce the demand for educational professional education services. Some analysts also applied this phenomenon to the Russian economy, especially in times of economic growth in 2000–2008. Using a regression model, the author has considered the relevance for Russia of Groningen effect. Drawing on data from monitoring studies of students 2001–2013 the author determined the actual economic characteristics of the consumer demand for “educational services of higher education” in the total consumption of Russian society.
PERSONA GRATA
Interview with Alexey Gromyko.
SCRIPTA MANENT
A book review: 10 сoncepts sociologiques en relations internationales / sous la direction de Guillome Devin. Paris: CNRS Éditions. 2015. 220 р.
A book review: Шестопал А. В. МГИМО: лица и поколения. М.: МГИМО-Университет, 2016. 200 с.
A book review: Blind Spot: America’s Response to Radicalism in the Middle East / ed. by Nicholas Burns and Jonathon Price. The Aspen Strategy Group. 2015. 216 p.
A book review: Толстых В.Л. Международные суды и их практика: М.: Международные отношения, 2015. 504 с.
A book review: Environmental Crime and Social Conflict: Contemporary and Emerging Issues / Edited by A. Brisman, N. South, R. White. Farnham and Burlington: Ashgate, 2015. 328 p.
ISSN 1811-2773 (Online)