‘Soft Power’ and ‘Hard Weakness’ in Chinese-Mongolian Relations

Abstract

Chinese-Mongolian relations reflect controversial nature of interaction between a strong power and its weaker neighbor. Strategies employed by each of the players in these relations, which possess dramatically different amount of military, political, economic and demographic capabilities, are illustrative as they enable maintaining balanced and neighborly relations in the context of unpredictability of mutual intentions. Despite the temptation towards greater assertiveness, China pursues a policy of engagement, based on its soft power rather than coercion. Meanwhile, Ulaanbaatar, despite its weakness on most measures, follows the path of tough defending of its independence. Its strategy is built upon using Chinese vulnerabilities in order to increase the costs of any hardline policy for its much stronger neighbor. The geography of Mongolia, which put it between two great powers (China and Russia) provides it with opportunities to maneuver between them and play them against each other. Moreover, Ulaanbaatar fosters dialogue with ethnical Mongols and other similar nationalities within PRC. It uses this leverage to increase domestic costs of potential pressure on Mongolia by Chinese authorities. They could also be multiplied due to the existing risks of separatist movements in several ethnically or religiously diverse regions of China. Finally, Beijing’s policy towards Mongolia is closely monitored by other Chinese neighbors and partners as a potential reflection of its revisionist tendencies. Therefore, in the case of China and Mongolia a combination of these two strategies enables maintenance of sustainable equilibrium between clearly unequal partners.