National Types of Conflict Behavior
Abstract
In the latest decade, destabilization close to the Russian borders has been increasing the risk of the country’s participation in low-intensity conflicts and makes Moscow insist on its military presence in neighboring territories. Moreover, there has been a tendency for Russia’s zone of military presence to geographically expand to include not only neighboring countries, but also regions associated with the Soviet sphere of interest in the Cold War period, which is vital to ensure its national interests. Whether it is purposefully or spontaneously done, the process obviously increases the risk of Russia’s involvement in military conflicts and may lead to an overexertion of state power. This danger sets scholars with the task of working out an algorithm to help in formulating an objective evaluation of Moscow’s interests in a conflict and the practicality of involvement or non-involvement, as well as to work out a policy in case Russia is already involved.
The research contains an analytical model for national interest evaluation in contemporary international low-intensity conflicts in forecasting how Russia could possibly limit its involvement in such contingencies and avoid the dissipation of its resources. The study is based on the cases the Georgian-South Ossetian conflict in 2008 and the riots in Kyrgyzstan in 2010. The analytical model is an algorithm for assessing Russia's national interests in low-intensity conflicts through consistent research on the interests, goals, and tactics related to the possible actions of our country could engage in at the beginning of the military conflict’s escalation. The algorithm includes political, economic, humanitarian, and technological aspects of participation in conflicts. It also helps to assess the interests of a state concerning its involvement in low-intensity conflicts during their escalation. It is applicable in preparation for situation analyses of various conflicts in their escalation phase and in assessing the risks of involvement.
Supporting agencies: The author would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Russian Foundation for Humanities in preparing this publication within the framework of the research project №15-03-00728 “Cooperation and competition of traditional and rising centers of power in transforming world order and prospects of Russia's incorporation in the structures of the of global regulation”.
About the Author
Andrey Sushentsov
MGIMO University
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Dr Andrey Sushentsov – Associate Professor of International Affairs, Director, “Foreign Policy” analytical agency
Moscow, 119454
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Review
For citations:
Sushentsov A. National Types of Conflict Behavior. International Trends / Mezhdunarodnye protsessy. 2014;12(4):17-31. (In Russ.)
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