Russian East Policy and Prospects for the Siberian Far East

The article analyzes Russia's policy in its Far East area in the context of its foreign policy in the AsiaPacific Region with a focus on Russian-Chinese relations.

The key negative of the demographic situation in the Russian Far East is not the workforce shortage, but its poor quality. The massive immigration of non-Russian nationals from the Central Asian republics of the former USSR only exacerbates this problem. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is precisely emphasizing the lack of population in the Far East, which reflects the inherited Soviet-time attitude of people being the necessary instrument of control over a region.

The author argues that the sustainable control and balanced development of the Far Eastern territories do not require either an economic boom in this area or an expansion of trade. Nationals from South Korea are viewed as the best source of foreign labor, though this scenario is not very realistic under the present circumstances. The optimal level of Chinese immigration to Siberia should be directly defined according to the volume of investment from the potential newcomers to the local economy.

The economic benefits of Russia's new approach to the Asia-Pacific Region are mostly visible on the local level at the moment, specifically in the sphere of regional cross-border cooperation. As for large-scale energy projects, they are not too beneficial for the local economy due to significant tax breaks. The flaws of the national strategy of cross-border cooperation are obvious, as well as the flaws of the federal legislation in this field. These partly explain the obvious economic disparities between the border regions of Russia and China.

Russia should aim to ensure that none of its economic partners in the Far East acquire a dominating position. The optimal scenario for Russia would be a “concert of interests” of all principal investors and trade partners in the Far East – the U.S., Japan, Republic of Korea, and of course, China.

The article also deals with the scientific and analytical support of government decision-making in several policy spheres. The “eastern vector” of Russia's policy is being made in a certain international context. The fourth and fifth generations of the Chinese leadership are gradually moving away from the famous Deng Xiaoping's “strategy of 28 characters”. The discussion on China’s new future role is under way. Oriental studies in Russia are inadequate in meeting this challenge. There is an apparent decline of interest and a weakening of classical Sinological studies, as well as a decreasing competition in China-oriented analytics in general. Government actions to reverse the degradation of Oriental Studies in Russia are absolutely necessary.

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