CHALLENGES OF MULTILATERALISM
REALITY AND THEORY
The Covid-19 pandemic was a catalyst for the growing systemic crisis of the EU and at the same time gave the Union an impetus towards its qualitatively new development in favor of deeper integration, expressed in a change in the financial and economic space of the EU. Realizing the risks of their internal destabilization, the EU core countries decided to sacrifice the surplus from their economic successes through the socialization of debts in order to save the most affected peripheral Member States to preserve both the integration union and the European idea itself. The purpose of this article is to explain the difficulty of making this decision and its compromise nature, as well as to clarify the likely consequences and suggest options for the further development of the situation. The authors first compare the pros and cons of debt socialization. Then the variables are compared: the Spanish proposal, the Franco-German initiative and the negotiating platform on the "next generation EU" by Ursula von der Leyen with the fundamental points of the European Council compromise decision. It also provides answers to questions about the volume, conditions, mechanism, and control over the expenditure of the financial assistance provided. The breakthrough steps taken by the Member States towards finding an optimal solution are analyzed. The result of the study is a balanced conclusion about the ambiguous nature of the decision adopted by the EU but having a historical significance and opening prospects for the further deepening of integration processes. This is facilitated by reaching an agreement on the need to bring the core of the EU closer to the periphery through the socialization of debts, as well as the importance of structural reforms that would ensure the construction of a harmonious economy of the future based on a new technological platform and formulated in a breakthrough plan called the next generation EU. Success is not guaranteed, as it depends on the behavior of all Member States, but it is real.
This article explores the role of technology proliferation within the international arms trade as the major part of political structure of international system. The first part of the article suggests a brief overview of the existing studies of international arms transfer as an integral system in international relations, specifically emphasizing the impact of Krause’s (1992) “diffusion of technology” theoretical concept on the literature of 1990–2000-s. The focus of the review is on the intersection between the studies of specific technological transfers and more generalized empirical research works reveals an interesting scientific puzzle – on the one hand key arms manufacturer states accumulate most of the military R&D thus securing their place on the top of the suppliers’ hierarchy, but on the other hand more and more states acquire capabilities to produce military hardware and they more willingly interact with each other establishing strong horizontal bonds with each other to achieve some political independence and maximize economic efficiency (so-called globalization of arms production). In the second part of the article, the network-based approach is suggested as a solution to the market-hierarchy paradox, with some overview of the latest research of arms transfers via Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology. The third and the last part of the article provides first empirical investigation of the international military technology transfers using original operationalization approach based on SIPRI Arms Transfer Database information of localized production interstate transfers. Finally, the network graphs are constructed to compare general centrality metrics and locate network communities using the Blondel’s method for community detection. The network topology demonstrates significant interconnections between secondary suppliers within technology transfers sub-network, compared to “regular” transfers sub-network, as well as the existence of a “feedback loop” for the license transfers. Overall the empirical results provide positive evidence for Krause’s “diffusion of technology” concept and also support previous network studies of dissimilarities between USA and USSR dependent sub-network – the asymmetry between them appears to be even more stark on the license transfers data.
The evolution of digital technologies rooted in the transformation of the world into a holistic quantifiable system brings about foundational shifts in how an individuals interact with information. Current technological progress is cyclical in nature: emerging capabilities create different environment with new threats that prompt further search for technological solutions to address them, and occurs
\on two interwoven tracks: the increasing sophistication of the information system itself (better ways to collect, store and analyze data) and better means of human interaction with it (search engines, faster connection, more seamless interface with devices). Similar in scope to the spread of printed books, the digital transformation is still at its nascency: the “printing press” has been invented, but the humanity is yet to perfect it and experience the full array of social and political changes it is bound to incur.
This article is an attempt to peek into such “digital future”. Taking stock of the observable trends it charts the course of major shifts in approaches to foreign policy and maps out possible impediments for effective leadership in the new era.
The conceptualization of the transformations is picking up speed, yet main IR schools tackling dispersed aspects, such as the impact of digital technologies on the balance of power (realism), on the nature of government and international environment (liberalism) and on the interpretation of the emerging processes (constructivism), do not offer a comprehensive approach. At the same time despite the growing analyzability and, hence, rationality of the world the studies of the decision-making process still struggle to account for the “human nature” of state leadership.
The futility of the attempts to measure irrationality underlines the core argument of the article – with the overall trend for deeper convergence between an information system and a human the emerging digital future will be determined by individuals, who will remain the ultimate stewards of international relations. As a result, the efficiency of leadership, including smart utilization of technological advances, will depend on the quality of “human capital” of elites.
On the one hand, accessibility of information, faster data travel and the absence of physical boundaries in the digital space enhance analytical abilities of individuals and improve the quality of decision making. On the other hand, the increasing effortlessness of retrieving, storing and disseminating information results in the shift of perspective: laborious process of developing a solution is substituted by search for the most acceptable alternative, solving a crisis is replaced with manipulating the perception of it, and the quality of decisions is judged not by long-term consequences but by immediate movements in opinion polls.
CHRONICALS. People and events
The negotiation of parameters for the settlement of an armed conflict is always a complex process in which the interests of all its immediate participants and other concerned parties collide. One of the most striking examples of such confrontations is the settlement process at the end of the Korean War of 1950–1953, which culminated in the Geneva Conference of 1954. The purpose of the article is to specify the role of the United States as the leader of the UN coalition in the negotiations, as a result of which, after three years of war involving about two dozen countries, the situation returned to its original state – the pre-war border between North and South Korea was restored, and the most active and influential members of the opposing alliances agreed to a truce. The archival documents that have become available in recent years allow us to significantly supplement the ideas formed in domestic and foreign historiography about the reasons for the incompleteness of the peace settlement process in Korea after the end of the war of 1950– 1953. The article examines the contribution of the US diplomacy to creating of the Korean agenda at the conference, and shows that the UN coalition had been functioning in the "double deterrence" mode by the start of the negotiations in Geneva. The role of the United States as the leader of the military-political alliance in the development of plans for the peninsula unification is clarified. The conclusion is justified that already in the second half of May 1954, the United States, when making decisions, primarily proceeded from the motives of propaganda and considered seriously the conclusion to negotiations. As a result, the chance to resolve the Korean issue was ignored and the Geneva Conference turned into a means of fundamentalizing the American strategy in the Northeast Pacific region. It is shown that the results of the conference were in line with the immediate expectations of Washington and its long-term strategy in the Asia-Pacific region. The results of the Korean phase of the Geneva Conference consolidated the division of Korea into two hostile states and for a long time closed the question of possible union of the country.
CATCHING A TREND
The article analyses with the use neoliberal theory of international relations the Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) activities in the context of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The purpose of this study is to show the interaction between the member-states within the framework of ACTO in matters of socio-economic and environmental problems in the Amazon Basin. The Sustainable Development Strategy has received support in Latin American region, where one can see a growing awareness that efficient response to new challenges requires increased action not only at the national, but also at the regional and global levels. Though the situation in a range of integration associations in Latin America impedes regional cooperation in the implementation of common programs aimed at promoting sustainable development, the ACTO activities become increasingly important in achieving the SDGs in one of the most vulnerable areas in the world – the Amazonia. This article covers for the first time the achievements of ACTO in the process of implementing the SDGs, interaction between countries in terms of ensuring multidimensional security in the Amazon Basin. At the same time it specifies areas where they need to make additional efforts. As a result of the study, we come to the following conclusions: 1) the problems of sustainable development specific to the Amazonian area have a cross-border and complex nature, which requires a joint policy of the Amazonian countries to solve them; 2) the mechanism of interaction between South American countries in the ACTO format is an important component in tackling socio-economic and environmental challenges in the Amazonian area; 3) thanks to the cooperation of ACTO with both governmental and non-governmental institutions and with extra-regional countries, joint projects are being implemented to address problems in the Amazonian area; 4) ACTO is an example of a supranational organization that contributes to the achievement of the SDGs, which has a positive impact on the process of achieving the SDGs by 2030 on a global scale.
Superplatforms – diversified digital corporations from the United States (Amazon, Google and others grouped in FAMGA/GAFAM) and China (Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent) dominating the Internet markets – are the leading actors of digital economy. In terms of revenue, markets, and capitalization they are already among the largest multinational corporations. Many basic factors of their success are still in place, but increased competition, diminishing importance of low base effects and other challenges forced them to sharpen focus on innovations and emerging technologies since late 2000s – early 2010s. This process was supported by a strong influx of capital from financial markets. As a result, superplatforms executed strong growth of research and development (R&D) expenditures and investments in venture markets – especially in the domain of emerging technologies. By the end of 2010s, superplatforms appeared among leading technology and innovation actors of respective National Innovation Systems (NIS) in terms of their share of national business R&D, venture investments and because of unique role in promoting digital transformation of the U.S.A. and China. It may also be stated, that superplatforms now are an important factor of both potential and competitiveness of the superpowers, including issues of digital sovereignty. For the future, disruptive innovations and technologies will still be in focus of the superplatforms. This is especially true since superplatforms need new quality of innovative development: further accelerated increase of R&D and venture investments seem to be almost impossible in new realm of the financial markets. The process will be more influenced by the external factors, than in the previous decade. (Among them are changes in the regulatory environment – also to compensate challenging monopolistic behaviors of FAMGA and BAT; changing global trade and investment dynamics – including technological “war” between the U.S.A. and China; rise of global competition). As a result, we may envision further rise of importance of the superplatforms for NIS and their transformation into a new factor of economic and digital power – and new arena of global competition for the U.S.A. and China.
CONTINUING THE DISCUSSION
The article is a response to a new, pioneering book Modern Korea. Metamorphoses of Turbulent Years (2008–2020) written by a group of leading Russian experts on Korea from MGIMO University: Anatoly Torkunov, Georgy Toloraya, and Ilya Dyachkov. The book is a valuable addition to the existing literature and a product of a unique approach to modern Korean studies conducted at MGIMO. The article examines and develops the comprehensive analysis provided by MGIMO professors, point out pressing issues on the Korean Peninsula and assess Russia’s potential role in solving them. The fact that the goal of denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula based on Pyonyang’s rejection of nuclear weapons not only has not been achieved, but became even more distant than before, leads us to questioning the logic behind the authors' recommendation for Russia to withdraw its support from the international system of sanctions against Pyongyang and to move closer to North Korean. We argue that easing the sanctions may mean recognizing that Russia does not believe in this goal and wishes to encourage North Korea's refusal to comply with the demands of the international community. Moreover, such an approach could be perceived as evidence of Russia’s support of some new academic theories which claim that the very system of nonproliferation has become outdated and can even be abolished altogether. At the same time, this position would reduce the role of Russia in the Korean settlement, which would inevitably have a negative impact on DPRK's renunciation of nuclear weapons in the foreseeable future. The article argues that such views, especially that the non-proliferation strategy is outdated, come into a direct contradiction with Russia's interests. The recognition of DPRK's nuclear status may spark a chain reaction in the quest for nuclear weapons in the region which in turn would create a serious security threat for Russia's eastern regions. In addition, an increase in the number of nuclear states would devalue Russia’s status as a nuclear power, thus, the policy of nonproliferation of nuclear weapons should remain a priority of Russia’s foreign policy. Overall, we conclude that Moscow's policy towards the Korean peninsula should be based on careful evaluation of the current international situation as well as Russia’s interests, and not on outdated and often counterproductive Soviet tradition.
SCRIPTA MANENT. Book reviews
Book review:
Улунян А.А. Туркестанский плацдарм. 1917–1922. Британское разведывательное сообщество и британское правительство. 2-е изд. Москва: URSS, 2020. 704 c.
Book review:
Manor I. The Digitalization of Public Diplomacy. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan, 2019. 356 p.
ISSN 1811-2773 (Online)