REALITY AND THEORY
The Chinese dream of great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is inseparable from the restoration of China's positions on the international arena, primarily in East Asia and in Eurasia. Since the beginning of reforms in 1978, Beijing has constantly expanded its contacts with the outside world, at first as a promising and capacious market for industrial equipment, technologies and investment, and since the beginning of the 21st century as an active member of the global governance institutions. Multilateral formats have allowed China to accumulate significant experience in participating in international affairs, especially at the regional level. At the global level, China's activity was constrained not only by opposition from the United States, but also by the specific character of Chinese civilization and its development model. In this context, the concept of "community of the common destiny of mankind" put forward by Xi Jinping did not mean universalization and unification, but, on the contrary, the right of countries and regions to a variety of development paths and forms of international interaction between small, medium and great powers. The rivalry between China and the United States in Asia does not only mean a struggle for leadership in the region, it also means a clash of two concepts of the international order, built on different approaches and values. The Belt and Road project, originally proposed as two regional, unrelated initiatives for Central and South-East Asia, has evolved after their combination into China's first global foreign policy strategy. Its practical implementation challenges Russia's integration efforts in the post-Soviet space and requires both countries to search for new tools and forms of interaction.
Our analysis allows us to talk about two waves of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe. The first wave was observed in 2011 and was expressed in the explosive growth of mainly peaceful protests. Taking into account the data on the direct impact of the events of the Arab Spring on the protest activity in Western Europe, the explosive increase in the number of anti-government demonstrations, riots and general strikes recorded in Western Europe in 2011 can be attributed to the influence of the Arab Spring up to a very considerable extent. In 2012–2014 the protest movement in Western Europe acquired its own logic and continued at a fairly high level, despite the disappearance of the "Arab impulse" – to a large extent under the influence of the second wave of the financial and economic crisis. The second wave of the echo of the Arab spring in Western Europe was observed with a noticeable time lag in 2014–2015. and manifested primarily in the form of rapid growth of terrorist (mainly Islamist) activities. One of the consequences of the Arab Spring was the collapse or sharp weakening of several sufficiently effective Arab authoritarian regimes, which led to a significant improvement in the possibility of the activities of terrorist organizations of various kinds, the rapid growth of their strength, influence and effectiveness of organizational forms – including, which is very important for Western Europe, in cyber space. Terrorist activities penetrated from Arab countries to Western Europe through various channels: refugees, quite effective Internet propaganda of ISIS, jihadists returning to Western Europe, and so on. The second wave was expressed in a certain increase in protest activity, but it radically differed from the protests in 2011, since in the latter case it was a matter of the protests organized mainly by the right-wing forces against the migrant wave, which was generated to a very high degree by the tsunami of the Arab Spring.
The article evaluates Germany`s position in military-political field achieved by the end of Angela Merkel`s era. The key dilemma for German establishment is to find a combination of the growing desire to strengthen positions in the world arena and restrictions as a result of historical responsibility for the outbreak of World War II. It determines FRG`s commitment to the principles of multilateralism and also strategic restraint (in the questions of combat and generally provocative usage of military tools). The paper issues the evolution of this elements of German foreign policy at the end of 2010-s. During the final period of Merkel`s era German establishment has faced the growing number of challenges for FRG`s leadership at the global, regional (Euro-Atlantic community) and internal levels. The article stresses the danger of further growth of «Alternative for Germany» positions for the retention of power by the elite. This danger stimulates the sharp intensification of FRG`s political and military activity by the beginning of the 2020s. Trumpism and Brexit determines the growing importance of deepening contacts with France, small and medium states in military-political sphere for Germany. The scientific paper explores the dynamics and the results of this process at the interstate (on the examples of focus partners) and regional levels. The author also issues German steps directed to the strengthening of positions in the key international structures in the security sphere. The paper explores plans of the build-up of the Bundeswehr for the longterm perspective, the features and «narrow places» of the Bundeswehr modern usage inside and outside the NATO zone of responsibility. The author pays special attention to the correlation between the staring growing of military potential and the restrictions in the Treaty of the Final Settlement with Respect to Germany (1990). The paper concludes about key results and difficulties of the growing of German military-political positions in the world by the beginning of 2020s.
CATCHING A TREND
This article analyzes the manifestations of regionalism in the context of a deep socio-political crisis in Ukraine. With the development of the political crisis that followed the coup d'etat in February 2014 in Ukraine, there was a noticeable actualization of issues and problems related to regionalism, society as a whole demonstrated a request for the redistribution of powers between the power center and the regions. This is reflected in numerous initiatives of regional authorities and public organizations aimed at expanding the financial base, functions and rights of local authorities and self-government, as well as in policy documents of political forces. At the same time, in some cases, the idea of establishing a contractual relationship between the Central government and the regions was put forward, which is typical for the Federal model of government. In response to this request, the Executive branch made another attempt to implement local government reform under the slogan of decentralizing the country's state structure. Since 2014, Ukraine has developed two multidirectional trends – centrifugal and centripetal, the ratio of which will determine the dynamics and severity of political manifestations of regionalism. Despite numerous autonomist statements, Ukrainian regionalism remains within the "rigid" model formed in the post-Soviet period. The conflict in the South-East of the country and the deep involvement of the leading powers – Russia, the United States and the European Union-are the determining factor that predetermined the "freezing" of regionalization processes in Ukraine after 2014. After the signing of the Minsk agreements, the implementation of which means for Ukraine to introduce elements of Federal relations into the system of state structure, the reform of the state structure and territorial administration has become inextricably linked with Kiev's strategy towards the self-proclaimed republics of Donbass. Manifestations of regionalism were perceived by Kiev to a large extent in the context of threats to the territorial integrity of the country, which significantly limited the possibility of implementing the policy of decentralization. In addition, Russia and the United States have demonstrated in practice different approaches to the interpretation and implementation of the Minsk agreements, which has had a negative impact on the regionalization processes in Ukraine. The nature of the processes of regionalization in Ukraine allows to draw Parallels with the situation in Transnistria and around him, and to talk about common Moldovan and Ukrainian models hard regionalism, the hallmark of which is the transformation of the regionalization processes in a tool to achieve political goals of Russia and the West in conflict with the nature of their interaction on post-Soviet space.
The article summarizes the outcomes of the implementation of the Water Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020 in its part concerning international politics and assesses the new challenges to international cooperation in the field of protection and use of transboundary waters that Russia is expected to face in the coming decade. 2010s witnessed both the changing situation in the field of water availability in Russia, its neighbor countries and the whole world, and the changing scholarly approaches to the impact of water scarcity on international politics. Most of the approaches agreed that water scarcity more often leads to international cooperation. While agreeing with this approach, the authors critically assess the assumption that water scarcity is more often a source of conflicts, and that multilateral international institutions are the best tool to mitigate these conflicts. The authors find that this approach is based on Hobbesian notion of the natural condition of war of all against all for scarce resources, the only alternative to which are institutions of coercion, albeit not always perfect. The authors also find that other approaches based on Hobbesian political philosophy separate the international political processes caused by fear and by scarcity, the two most important “passions that incline men to peace”, according to Hobbes. Fear, including fear of scarcity, tends to drive conflicts, but scarcity as such is more likely to generate cooperation. While multilateral institutions are sometimes capable of mitigating conflicts, in conditions of water scarcity bilateral and minilateral, i.e., created by a small number of parties, institutions of cooperation turn out to be more effective. The experience of Russia’s interaction with its neighbors in the field of protection and use of transboundary water resources considered in the article provides with yet another evidence of that. The authors conclude that the international politics component of Russia’s water strategy for the coming period is more consistent with the approach that assumes that water scarcity generates cooperation rather than conflicts. They also conclude that bilateral and minilateral institutions of cooperation offer countries destined to share a common river basin instruments of interaction that are more suitable for the conditions of a particular basin than multilateral institutions can offer.
The article is dedicated to the features and potential of the emerging strategic partnership relations between India and Iran. The relevance of the study is determined primarily by the necessity of understanding the new challenges and trends that have emerged in Asia as a result of the formation of India as a great power and a sharp increase in the role of Iran in the megaregion. Analysis of the main approaches of India and Iran to the creation of a new paradigm of international relations in Asia is given with respect to the inclusion of the issue in the strategies of the leading powers of the continent. The role of project diplomacy in the energy and transport spheres in the formation of a trusted connection in the Middle East and Central Asia, including the settlement of the situation in Afghanistan, is shown. It was noted that the exceptional continuity which is one of the basic features of India's development, found its expression in the balancing behavior, including in South-West Asia, where Iran is one of the key players which is under US sanctions, and which foreign policy has retained its commitment to the goals of the Islamic revolution and dominance in the region. At the same time, over the past 2 years, negative trends have emerged in India's foreign policy, indicating that the positions of pro-American forces have significantly strengthened, which can undermine the general consensus on foreign policy that has existed for more than half a century. The focus is on the problems of the participation of India and Iran in the implementation of the international initiatives Belt and Road and the International North-South Transport Corridor (Southeast Asia – India – Iran – Russia – Europe). The study of cooperation in the field of energy (identification of the Iranian potential; supply of hydrocarbons to India; the possibility of buying liquefied gas by India; construction of a strategic gas pipeline from Iran to India, including the sea route, and possible participation of Russia in this project) and prospects for the growth of the Indian- Iranian trade turnover and changes in its structure are also crucial tasks in the analysis of Indian-Iranian economic relations.
The rapidly developing digital economy seriously affects the tax systems of different countries. At the end of XX century there was an optimistic approach to the taxation of digital economy. It was considered that there is no need for the new taxes, new tax regimes and the traditional concepts of international taxation were expected to sustain the new challenges. It was also considered that even with implementation of new technologies tax rules should keep on being clear and simple with high level of certainty, so that taxpayers could anticipate the tax consequences in advance. The digital economy was supported and exempt from taxation. Nowadays the possibility of imposing the new special taxes on digital economy is considered and some countries already introduced those taxes. The pessimism in respect of digital economy is now prevailing in the tax systems. However, the tightening trend in the tax regimes may entail the discrimination of the new technologies against those, which were developed before and already entered into the markets. The controversies between the technological center and periphery play certain role here. For the countries of technology periphery to join the tightening trend means to curb development of their domestic hightech industry as discrimination in taxation of foreign countries is still considered inacceptable. It is obvious that the regulatory pendulum: from the most optimistic to the extreme pessimistic approach, until the desperate protectionist measures, should be balanced with the time. The panic in the publications about the prospective of the digital economy taxation shall subside and turn to the constructive suggestions without unnecessary fiscal focus.
МИРОВАЯ ПОЛИТИКА И ТРАНСНАЦИОНАЛЬНЫЙ БИЗНЕС
The study provides a systematic analysis of central banks digital currencies (CBDC) as a new financial instrument. The main goal of the study was to review the CBDC economic development scenarios both domestically and internationally based on the assessment of the main features, advantages and risks of introducing this financial instrument into the modern monetary policy. The study considers the following three main characteristics of CBDC: a tool for domestic settlements, a single unit of account for the economic bloc of countries and a universal international digital currency. Each of these models was considered by the author in terms of the motivation of market participants, degree of readiness of the project and its compatibility with the existing financial system. Differentiation of models, depending on the payment architecture, the technological parameters and the implementation scale, allowed to conclude that currently there is no common understanding of the CBDC nature and economic advantages neither for individual countries nor for the international community as a whole. Noting the technological advantages of digitalization of the financial system, states are yet to answer the question of the CBDC implementation scale. Will it replace cash domestically or will it become a single international payment instrument? And are states ready today to consider such a possibility? The author concludes the study by substantiating the idea that in the next 3-5 years interest in the digital financial services sector will grow mainly in developing countries looking for a qualitative leap in the development of the digital financial services. As for the developed countries, those are neither objectively nor subjectively ready to change the already built and well-proven financial system, and therefore, given their weak interest in paradigm shifts, digital currency in the next 10 years will not be able to provide an alternative to the US dollar as a unit of international settlements. At the same time, there is a high probability of the CBDC development as a means of payment within the economic bloc of countries provided the unity of purpose of its participants.
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