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Vol 17, No 1 (2019)

REALITY AND THEORY

6-21 56
Abstract

The negotiation process on the issue of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) was an important part of the American-Soviet dialogue at the final stage of the Detente. The Soviet-American conversations on this topic in 1978-1979 became possible due to the fact that in the governments of both countries in those years security was considered comprehensively. In this regard, the ASAT problem was included in the agenda of bilateral negotiations in order to limit the militarization of space and eliminate unilateral violation of power balance. Initially these negotiations were not subject to wide publicity. The article describes the process of preparing the American government for negotiations with Soviet colleagues, establishes the level of awareness of American negotiators about the real state of affairs in the field of ASAT in the USSR. Article analyzes the challenges faced by the US administration in the military space, the motives of its leaders, the positions of key departments (the State Department, the military, the White House). The reasons for the failure of the negotiations and its consequences are considered. 1970s was the period of the greatest achievements in the field of arms limitation and cooperation in creating mechanisms to maintain stability in the world, appeared primarily in the signing of a number of Soviet-American agreements on the limitation of various types of weapons. During these years ASAT was a relatively new problem required a comprehensive study and a well-considered bilateral (and in the long term and multilateral) solution. The US military was aware of the growing significance of American satellites in providing communications, intelligence, and geolocation functions. Serious concerns in Washington were caused by tests of co-orbital satellite interceptors in the USSR. The development of American anti-satellite systems in the United States was delayed, which led to an imbalance between the two superpowers in the military-space sphere. Guided by the desire to correct this problem, President J. Carter, who took office in January 1977, began to provide a “two-track approach”. On the one hand, he intensified research and development activities on the creation of a satellite interceptor. On the other hand, negotiations with the USSR have been initiated with a view to signing an agreement restricting or prohibiting ASAT systems. However, the development of an action strategy and the formulation of tasks for the American delegation to the upcoming negotiations was complicated by the specific nature of the ASAT issues and interdepartmental disagreements. In fact, American diplomacy got the task to induce the USSR to make concessions without offering anything equivalent in return. The first appeal to the USSR with the proposal to begin negotiations was made by the USA in March 1977, but for the first conversations began only in June 1978 in Helsinki. The other two rounds took place in January-February and April-June 1979. During the debates, several fundamental differences emerged, in particular, about interpretations of ASAT and protected satellites. The ASAT negotiations were suspended without a definite result initially due to the expectation of ratification of the SALT-II, and finally due to the Afghan events of the end of 1979. The article contains new information about the content and features of the negotiation process in the years of the Detente of international tensions and makes it possible to identify some characteristic features of the activities of American diplomacy in unfavorable conditions for it.

22-37 40
Abstract

Crisis of traditional financial system and the wave of technological innovations supported the accelerated formation of the global cryptocomplex. The complex is rapidly evolving, by the end of July 2018 there were about 1700 cryptoprojects globally. The cryptocomplex includes separate cryptosystems linked into a single network via cryptocurrencies trade. The article reveals economic nature and business models of the three largest and most famous cryptosystems – Bitcoin, Ethereum и Ripple, which are responsible for about 70% of the global cryptocomplex capitalization. Though Bitcoin and Ethereum try to create the alternative to the traditional financial system, Ripple proposes new cutting edge technological and effective decisions for the existing banking and payments systems. The authors show that the largest global private cryptosystem Bitcoin, whose goal is substitution of fiat money with bitcoin cryptocurrency, in reality is far away from the ideal system of distributed money, which automatically maintains deals between peers via the neutral computer code. Bitcoin, as well as other systems of cryptocurrencies, has inherent hierarchy and vivid monopoly effects. De-facto control over the Bitcoin functioning rests with the largest players, who replaced the central bank. These players are the main beneficiaries of recurrent rise in capitalization of cryptocurrencies. The strategic task of making bitcoin an alternative to fiat money as a mean of payments has failed. Due to the excessive price volatility bitcoin failed to become a worthy alternative to fiat money and traditional assets as a mean of saving for broad categories of investors. Ethereum and Ripple business models are weakly linked to the dynamics of cryptocurrencies development, serving these systems. Ethereum business model provides for maximization of incomes, rents and other benefits for the system creators from its extensive development. Ripple made an economic bet on selling its special digital solutions to traditional players in financial markets. The authors make a conclusion that cryptocurrencies effectively serve interests of the two clienteles. First are the pioneers of financial sector digitalization, including computer programmers, computer engineers, cryptography and game theory experts as well as venture investors working in parallel. Second are economic agents engaged into various illegal and criminal activities. The authors forecast that given the policies of financial markets regulators the pseudo anonymity of transactions in the sector of cryptocurrencies will cease to exist in the nearest future.

38-61 28
Abstract

After the global financial crisis of 2007-2009, multiple countries have faced tight budget constraints and slowdown in economic activity. In such conditions, OECD countries have started to pay more attention to implementing R&D programs aimed at boosting economic growth and social welfare. Emerging countries are also trying to collect best practices in this area for adapting the latter to national circumstances in order to ensure sustainable innovation development. The most promising examples of R&D policy tools are those used in the USA and EU. In this paper, we conduct a comparative study focused on the objectives of R&D programs in the USA and EU, the usage of particular tools for financial support of small and medium enterprises (SMEs), the development of public-private partnerships and international cooperation in such areas like creation and distribution of new technologies. If public funding of various fields of science in the EU is quite centralised within the specific large-scale framework programs, then such programs in the USA are less scaled, but much more focused and are related to particular areas like fostering R&D activities in small enterprises. Both the EU and the USA are actively developing international cooperation in the field of science and technology, including some collaborative projects with each other. We also analyze budgets and tools for public R&D funding in the private sector. There is an intensive use of various tools to enhance the creation of public-private partnerships as well as both direct and indirect instruments for R&D funding in the EU and the USA. We pay particular attention to managing R&D programs in terms of coordinating all stakeholders being involved. Our analysis reveals both the common and distinctive features of R&D programs as well as the most effective forms and best practices used in R&D programs in the EU and the USA.

CATCHING A TREND

62-72 30
Abstract

The article considers communicative potential of information components of soft power given the development of new information and communication technologies and forms of mass communication. Conceptual-analytical and communicative-technological approaches to the study of soft power as a system of resources and instruments of foreign policy are identified, as well as the inverse character of soft power technologies is demonstrated. The structural analysis of the information component of soft power, which is actively used by political and international structures to achieve their aims and respond quickly to challenges and threats in a global networked society, is carried out. The author's interpretation of the information component of soft power, which is considered to be a a set of information strategies, technologies and products used in the information space for realizing specific goals related to the political interests of soft power subject is suggested. Comparative analysis of rating models of soft power is carried out with due regard to the role of information in these analytical instruments. As an integral and systemforming element of the information structure of soft power, a media discourse is analyzed. When considering the main information components of soft power, separate network technologies and social media are allocated: technology of smart mob, fake discourses, instant mobile communication services (messengers). Under conditions of digitalization of international processes, messengers become a major channel of communication and the information resource aimed at formatting public opinion and coordination of groups. In conclusion, the authors determine that the inverse nature of the information components of soft power is manifested in its contradictory strategic attitudes. On the one hand, a media discourse of a soft power is aimed at fulfilling a consolidating function among the participants in the communicative process. On the other, media discourse is employed for implementation of destructive strategies related to the hidden manipulative influence on mass consciousness, using confrontationallyoriented technologies. It is noted that the development of digital technologies leads to create of new information types of soft power, such as digital culture, digital diplomacy, digital management, digital electoral system. Under conditions of the global informatization of society, the process of integrating network technologies, new and social media is being implemented, and their adaptability to new realities is being intensified, which ultimately leads to an increase in the mobility of the structural components of soft power, and to an increase in their synergistic effect.

73-87 34
Abstract

At present the Islamic community – ummah is searching for a modern Islamic political identity. Traditional Muslim legal doctrine does not offer the only and definite form of the state, the political organization and functioning of government structures, but sets general guidelines where different options are possible. And there arises a theoretical question – what are factors that determine a particular version of the state-political system in a particular Muslim society, legal forms of interrelations between religion and politics, their complicated evolution in a specific country and time context. This article is aimed at finding out of the factors, which form models of state-political systems, interaction between religion and government, the role of Islam in politics on the example of the Republic of Indonesia, which has a very flexible and effective model of relations between Islam and the state. The study of the origin and development of Indonesian statehood, the evolution within its framework of relations between Islam and politics leads to the conclusion that the most important role here is played by the interweaving of a number of objective and subjective factors: cultural and civilizational specificity that has developed over the centuries and determines the level of Islamization of religious consciousness, which is reflected in the political culture; geographical and religious demographic factors. The evolution of the nature and extent of the influence of Islam on politics also depends of the influence of the specific historical situation in the country, changes in political regimes, and internal political confrontation. The role of Islam in politics grows when other channels are closed for the expression of group interests or social and political protest and decreases due to the absence of internal cohesion of the Islamic Ummah, competition between Islamic parties, organizations and leaders. The example of Indonesia is interesting because by appealing to distinctive civilizational specifics, the country opposes the efforts of Islamist fundamentalists to impose the standards of the Middle Eastern Arab-Islamic development model, the so-called “Caliphate project,” the concept of an “Islamic state,” ignoring the cultural and civilizational features of non-Arab Muslim peoples, the diversity of cultural, historical and political development of Muslims.

88-98 38
Abstract

Collapse of the USSR resulted in emergence of national states within the borders of the former Soviet republics. New national elites needed to establish their right to create meanings. Legitimation of power started simultaneously with construction of a national style, lost during the Soviet period. The article is about methods of the national style construction in modern Tajikistan and accents that helped the political elite of this state gradually overcome the cultural heritage of the disintegrated Soviet state. Based on examples, the author shows how the national style is gradually vested in architectural and language policy, defines symbolic politics and produces new cultural standards and forms. The author supposes that political elite of modern Tajikistan has no other way for political legitimization but to address national motives and various subjects that underline the heroic historical past of the state. National self identification means focusing on the centrality of Tajik culture, which is an objective in itself. The author concludes that every independent state has the right to preserve and developits culture and modern Tajikistan is no exception. In the cultural space of modern Tajikistan national symbols gradually replace the Soviet heritage. Political elite of the modern state must emphasize its own achievements in state building process. Construction of the national style makes development of Tajik culture a priority.

99-113 41
Abstract

The current world politics has gained an unprecedented speed during the last decades. This makes a cautious non-partisan expertise extremely important, as well as strategic plans and political and economic forecasts. EU-Russian political crisis over Ukraine which resulted in the «sanctions war» was impossible to deal with without close consideration of a number of interdependent factors. This study aims to evaluate the EU think tanks' actions under such extraordinary circumstances and to find out whether their position matters when political decisions are taken. The article considers the major theoretical approaches to the think tanks phenomenon and to their effectiveness and influence evaluation. The ways for think tanks to have an impact on political life are analyzed and evaluated by a number of characteristics. The author makes a review of the EU think tanks' types and missions. It is stressed that more than a half of the institutes under consideration include political influence in the list of their missions. To check their achievements the author analyzes publications of 20 think tanks from 10 EU member states on the “sanctions war” issue. Each think tank’s publications were resumed which allowed to distinguish the main features in all the materials analyzed. It helped at the same time not to lose the specialties of each publication and for think tank and to classify them. The main factor of difference turned out to be a country of origin, not funding source or political orientation. It is concluded that the EU think tanks are not able to fully mobilize their intellectual potential under extraordinary circumstances in order to suggest unconventional problem solution and give at least shortterm forecast. Their judgments normally coincide with the EU countries’ official positions and have almost no impact on political decision-making.

114-128 33
Abstract

Traditional negative connotation of the term “crisis” narrows down scholarly perspective with a relatively rigid framework, which tends to overlook the constructive effects of critical development points. The use of synergetic methodology to deconstruct and redefine the term “crisis” to include ambivalent as well as positive effects into the whole picture may serve as one of the possible ways to address and partly remedy this problem. Such methodology is focused on the self-regulation and self-organization of complex systems. It draws on the observation that processes in various unrelated fields could follow the same logical structure. This article is aimed at applying synergetics to the analysis of two integration shocks: refugee crisis of the Schengen area and sovereign debt crisis of the Eurozone. It presents comparative analysis of the EU’s responses to crises and gives ground for the following set of conclusions. European integration process develops along “the uprising supranationality spiral”. The movement up and down along the spiral is possible due to the thermostat effect. This effect explains both why the EU's pro-integration response to crises may go beyond reactive measures and why rapid and intensive authority delegation in its turn spurs popularity of Eurosceptic forces. Fluctuations along the supranationality spiral go in line with the EU’s essential raison d'être: they ensure the maintenance of the system's homeostasis with a set of definite parameters of order. The EU represents a system in the Making between the phases of development and maturity. Considering the cycling of the political materia's states of aggregate, this position provides theoretical ground to talk about the midterm future of the European integration from the standpoint of evolutionary optimism.

PERSONA GRATA

SCRIPTA MANENT

136-138 29
Abstract

A book review: Freedman L. The Future of War: A History. Public Affairs,  2017. 400 p. 

139-141 36
Abstract

A book review: Емельянов А.И. Геополитика Латинской Америки. —  Москва: ФГБОУ ВО МГЛУ, 2018. — 220 с.



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ISSN 1728-2756 (Print)
ISSN 1811-2773 (Online)